Part III: The Aftermath of the Mike Richards and Jeff Carter Deals

Earlier this summer, I wrote extensively on the deals that sent Mike Richards and Jeff Carter from dry island Philadelphia to L. A. and Columbus respectively, promising a trilogy of sorts. After looking at what the Flyers gained in both the trades and free agency, the final step is to evaluate what the Flyers lost in those deals. While this post is certainly long overdue, the aftermath of last night’s 3-2 Kings victory over the Flyers in their only meeting this season seems like the perfect remaining opportunity to bring closure to this saga.

Beginning with my familiar approach, let’s take a look at both Richards and Carter’s average ice time from last season per nhl.com:

Player	Games Played	ES TOI/Game	Team Rank	PP TOI/Game	Team Rank	SH TOI/Game	Team Rank	Total TOI/G	Team Rank
Richards	81	13:47	4	2:56	3	2:08	3	18:52	2
Carter	80	14:39	2	2:56	4	0:39	6	18:14	4

Unsurprisingly, we see that both guys gave the Flyers a good chunk of minutes in all situations. With the exception of Carter’s reduced role on the PK thanks to the emergence of Darroll Powe, Flyers head coach Peter Laviolette was not afraid to send out either player when he felt he needed a boost in any particular area of the ice. In order to give these minutes their proper context, we will begin by looking into where both players stacked up amongst Flyer forwards in point production, once again thanks to nhl.com:

Player	ES G (Team Rank)	ES A (Team Rank)	ES Pts (Team Rank)	PP G (Team Rank)	PP A (Team Rank)	PP Pts (Team Rank)
Richards	15 (T-5)	24 (4)	39 (6)	5 (T-4)	16 (1)	21 (1)
Carter	28 (T-1)	21 (5)	49 (3)	8 (1)	9 (T-3)	17 (3)

As we can see, both players seemed to match their top-6 ice time with top-6 scoring numbers both at even strength and on the power play. If we take a look at a few more key statistics according to Behind the Net and Time on Ice, it will become quite apparent why Richards and Carter are so good at what they do:

Player	Corsi ON	CorsiRel	Score-Tied Fenwick %	CorsiRelQoC	SF/60	Zone Start %	Zone Finish %
Richards	-1.23	1.1	53.6	0.752	30.6	46.8	50.1
Carter	3.34	7.8	50.5	0.896	29.2	43.8	51.9

Breaking these numbers down, beginning with Richards, his negative Corsi score is perhaps the first thing that stands about his totals. However, if we judge his performance according to Eric T.’s Balanced Corsi, we see that according to his zone start he is actually around 3 shots better per 60 minutes than we might expect. His balanced zone shift is also a little higher than we might expect, and if we couple this data with his extremely impressive 53.6% Fenwick with the score tied, there is a lot here to suggest that Richards is carrying the water at even strength.

Moving to Carter, his totals are just as impressive. Carter actually was put in tougher defensive spots than Richards, and his Corsi ON score is a little more than 4 shots higher per 60 minutes. His Balanced Corsi is around 7 shots higher than what we might expect from a player put in similar situations, and his BZS is around 3 percent to the good. His Fenwick score, though lower than Richards still suggests that he was also doing a major part driving the play forward for the Flyers considering his zone starts.

What is even more impressive is that the above analysis doesn’t even take into account the elephant in the room: quality of competition. Below is a chart of the toughest CorsiRelQoC scores of every player listed as a Center on Behind the Net last season, minimum 20 games played:

Rank	Player	Team	CorsiRelQoC
1	BRANDONDUBINSKY	NYR	1.436
2	ARTEMANISIMOV	NYR	1.412
3	HENRIKZETTERBERG	DET	1.383
4	DAVEBOLLAND	CHI	1.353
5	PAVELDATSYUK	DET	1.175
6	BRIANROLSTON	N.J	1.084
7	JORDANSTAAL	PIT	1.037
8	PATRICEBERGERON	BOS	1.026
9	OLLIJOKINEN	CGY	1.006
10	STEPHENWEISS	FLA	1.004
11	PATRICKMARLEAU	S.J	0.998
12	NATETHOMPSON	T.B	0.973
13	MARCUSJOHANSSON	WSH	0.953
14	BROOKSLAICH	WSH	0.95
15	BRADMARCHAND	BOS	0.921
16	DAVIDBACKES	STL	0.907
17	JEFFCARTER	PHI	0.896
18	TOMASPLEKANEC	MTL	0.895
19	SAKUKOIVU	ANA	0.879
20	DARRYLBOYCE	TOR	0.857
21	MARTINHANZAL	PHX	0.837
22	JERREDSMITHSON	NSH	0.83
23	STEVEOTT	DAL	0.809
24	DAVIDLEGWAND	NSH	0.805
25	PAULSTASTNY	COL	0.802
26	MIKERIBEIRO	DAL	0.8
27	MARTYREASONER	FLA	0.796
28	BRENDANMORRISON	CGY	0.771
29	MIKERICHARDS	PHI	0.752
30	JORDANCARON	BOS	0.745

Both Richards and Carter show up in the conversation with guys who are playing against some of the toughest players in the league. Though they may not score upwards of 80 points per season, both players are certainly producing at elite levels considering the players that they are expected to face night-in and night-out.

What is more, thanks to JaredL we are able to take a look at how the Flyers performed during the past two seasons with and without either Richards or Carter on the ice:

Player On-Ice	Corsi/60	Time (mins)	Corsi QoC
Both	3.398	211.85	0.646
Richards	1.286	2053.55	0.51
Carter	4.953	1950.467	0.386
Neither	-2.322	3514.417	-0.214

Unsurprisingly, these numbers fall in line with everything else we’ve seen – they were able to send the play in the right direction while eating the majority of the team’s tough-minute assignments. Jared was also kind enough to provide data that looks into how some of the Flyers’ other key players performed in situations both with and excluding one of Richards or Carter on the ice during the same time-frame:

Player On-Ice	With	Corsi/60	Time (mins)	Corsi QoC
Giroux	Either	4.698	1379.317	0.839
Giroux	Neither	4.204	784.9	-0.456
Briere	Either	8.912	895.383	0.069
Briere	Neither	-0.775	1238.717	0.224
Hartnell	Either	2.674	987.267	-0.576
Hartnell	Neither	-1.230	1121.883	0.329
van Riemsdyk	Either	2.194	1148.467	0.528
van Riemsdyk	Neither	4.426	704.967	-0.169

Once again, we see that no matter the situation, each player was better with one of either Richards or Carter on the ice except for James van Reimsdyk whose data has a noticeable discrepancy in quality of competition. In order for the Flyers to remain one of the premier Stanley Cup contenders in the Eastern Conference, it is looking more and more like the big line of JVR, Claude Giroux and Jaromir Jagr is going to be asked to carry the mail against top-tier competition in the absence of Richards and Carter. These numbers seem to suggest that it is certainly possible, but we will have to wait until each plays an adequate number of contests before we can finally say whether Paul Holmgren’s plan will pay off in the long run. So far, the Flyers are off to an excellent start, but Giroux & Co. will have to keep up their play in the absence of what was one of the league's most formidable one-two punches up front.