Monday, December 12, 2011

Power Rankings through December 11th

First off, you, dear reader, have my humblest apologies for the lack of update last week. I made a bonehead move and didn't save my name database and by the time I had everything set up again it was late in the week so I decided just to wait until the end of the weekend. In the future, I'll try to make updates every Sunday night and if that fails I'll make them on Monday with results through Sunday.

As I explained in the previous version, these rankings use a simple logit model to account for schedule, score effects and special teams. The numbers you see in the chart represent the expected even-strength score-tied Corsi/Fenwick if the team played each team once, at home and away, and the total number of shots per game stayed the same.

Before getting to the rankings, here are a few notes, comments and anecdotes.

- Things have stabilized for the most part. The average team's rating has moved up or down only 0.6 percentage points for both Corsi and Fenwick. That's with the addition of about 6-8 games per team.

- Minnesota continues to amaze and... bewilder. Their rating dropped off the most in the league since the previous version, going from a mighty expected Corsi rating of 45.1% down to 43.2%, a drop of 1.9 percentage points moving them down to worst in the league in both Corsi and Fenwick. Their record in that time? 7-0-0. Is Tebow secretly suiting up for them?

- The team with the second-biggest drop in rating is Washington. The model has the Caps' effects-adjusted Corsi at 50.4%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points. The last time I did these rankings was just before Boudreau was sent packing in favor of Hunter, so the change is all on Hunter's watch. The Capitals have put up a Corsi of 45.2 since Hunter took over. Six games is a meaningless sample size, but it'll be something to keep an eye on.

- Remember when people were talking about the Stanley Cup hangover for both Boston and Vancouver? With Boston's fantastic November and Vancouver's great last 4 or 5 weeks, both have pulled themselves up in the standings after somewhat slow starts. They are both in the top 5 in the Corsi ranking. I don't think anybody expected the Canucks, at least their skaters, to forget how to play hockey but that is an improvement for Boston - the Bs were pretty average last year.

Here is the table:

Corsi RankTeamCorsiFenwickFen Rank
1DET57.657.41
2VAN55.654.93
3PIT55.454.93
4STL54.955.82
5BOS54.153.37
6CHI52.653.95
7COL52.552.28
8S.J52.453.66
9PHI51.7529
10PHX50.750.114
11WPG50.651.310
12CBJ50.450.513
12N.J50.450.612
12WSH50.449.915
15L.A50.249.118
16MTL5050.811
17FLA49.949.516
18OTT49.849.317
19CGY49.549.118
20TOR48.748.221
21BUF48.346.326
22DAL4848.820
23CAR47.747.423
24EDM46.647.922
25NYI46.246.625
26T.B46.146.326
27NYR4646.824
28NSH45.545.428
29ANA44.84429
30MIN43.243.930

4 comments:

  1. While everyone's looking at Minnesota, the Rangers continue to be the quietly getting points in the standings that seem unlikely. Currently 2nd in PPG in the league. (1.40 to MIN's 1.43).

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  2. Rangers' November >> Rangers' October by everything I've seen (at least, restricted to skaters).

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  4. Yeah, I talked down the Rangers last time so I thought I'd leave them alone this time.

    Anonymous is right, but it's a mixed bag even if you throw out the October games. Their overall Corsi/Fenwick percentages are 47.5%/49% since November 1, though they are at 50.8%/51.6% with the score tied. Running the model I use for these power rankings leaving out October puts them 25th overall with an effects-adjusted Corsi% of 46.8%. Without digging, based on that it seems like they are well below average in that span on special teams and at even strength any time the score isn't tied.

    Lundqvist and bounces are largely responsible for their success. Before this season, his save% at even strength was 0.927. So far this year he's at 0.941. With the number of shots he's faced that's a difference of about 7 goals. Even more, his save percentage at even strength with the score tied is 0.956. The bounces are clearly going the Rangers' way, especially when it counts the most.

    I'm still not sold on them being a playoff team, but they have a 5-point cushion on the Canadiens in 9th.

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