In this two-part preview, Chase, Corey from Shutdownline and I were joined by friend of the blog Geoff Detweiler from Broad Street Hockey to talk about the gong show that was the Pens - Flyers series and the Flyers' second-round matchup against the Devils. Chronology be damned, we also talked about the Devils side with our own Triumph less than an hour after their game-seven win over Florida.
Download (Right Click, Save As)
Click Here to subscribe on iTunes.
Showing posts with label Marc-Andre Fleury. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marc-Andre Fleury. Show all posts
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Darren Dreger Would Be Squandering His Vezina Vote
Last night, TSN hockey insider Darren Dreger sent out a tweet that has rightfully raised eyebrows within the analytical hockey community. The message reads:
When questioned on the matter, Dreger responded with the following:
Speaking to his first remark about consistency, Dreger does have a bit of a point here; Fleury has consistently been a below average goaltender this season. For the 2011-2012 campaign, Fleury's even-strength save percentage is .914, markedly below the league-average number George E. Ays shows us here:
Though Broad Street Hockey's Eric T. points out that overall save percentage may be a better predictor of a goalie's future success in the short run, i.e. over one season, he also shows that ESSV% is the better predictor over large samples. Lucky for us, we have even-strength data going back to 2003-2004 pour la fleur. The results are as follows:
Even if we throw the best indicator for Fleury's future success out the window, his overall save percentage this season is 0.913 which still falls below league average. Without digging up the precise numbers, this tweet from draglikepull sums up the point perfectly:
Unfortunately, Mr. Dreger seems to have fallen for the same illusion that so many in the mainstream media have before him. Marc-Andre Fleury has no business in a discussion for the Vezina trophy this season, last season, or likely in any season going forward. Good coaching, strong possession metrics and the ability to keep the play as far away from The Flower as possible are what have kept the Penguins afloat amidst their run of injuries.
In sum,
Lundqvist is obvious vote for Vezina. Quick and Smith deserve attention. My vote for Fleury based on keeping Pens in hunt thru injuries.
— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) April 5, 2012
When questioned on the matter, Dreger responded with the following:
@breannad. Both, but without Fleury's consistancy Malkin and others can't play same game.
— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) April 5, 2012
@SkinnyPPPhish @walsha.No Crosby...no Letang for long stretches. 300+ man games lost to injury. Fleury allows Pens to run and gun = wins.
— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) April 5, 2012
Speaking to his first remark about consistency, Dreger does have a bit of a point here; Fleury has consistently been a below average goaltender this season. For the 2011-2012 campaign, Fleury's even-strength save percentage is .914, markedly below the league-average number George E. Ays shows us here:
@DrivingPlay From BTN, 1-(shooting%) from the individual shooters gives me an ESSV% of .91846638.Believe that's 5v5 only.
— George E. Ays (@RangerSmurf) April 5, 2012
Though Broad Street Hockey's Eric T. points out that overall save percentage may be a better predictor of a goalie's future success in the short run, i.e. over one season, he also shows that ESSV% is the better predictor over large samples. Lucky for us, we have even-strength data going back to 2003-2004 pour la fleur. The results are as follows:
| Year | ES Saves | ES Shots Against | ESSV% |
| 2011-2012 | 1304 | 1426 | 0.914 |
| 2010-2011 | 1296 | 1401 | 0.925 |
| 2009-2010 | 1256 | 1383 | 0.908 |
| 2008-2009 | 1310 | 1421 | 0.922 |
| 2007-2008 | 643 | 684 | 0.940 |
| 2006-2007 | 1303 | 1422 | 0.916 |
| 2005-2006 | 938 | 1026 | 0.914 |
| 2003-2004 | 449 | 500 | 0.898 |
| Total | 8499 | 9263 | 0.918 |
Even if we throw the best indicator for Fleury's future success out the window, his overall save percentage this season is 0.913 which still falls below league average. Without digging up the precise numbers, this tweet from draglikepull sums up the point perfectly:
@DrivingPlay @BenjaminWendorf It's well below median. 29th out of 47 goalies who've played at least 20 games this season.
— draglikepull (@draglikepull) April 5, 2012
Unfortunately, Mr. Dreger seems to have fallen for the same illusion that so many in the mainstream media have before him. Marc-Andre Fleury has no business in a discussion for the Vezina trophy this season, last season, or likely in any season going forward. Good coaching, strong possession metrics and the ability to keep the play as far away from The Flower as possible are what have kept the Penguins afloat amidst their run of injuries.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)