WC Second Round Preview Podcast

Chase, Triumph and I were joined by podcast regular Corey (@ShutdownLine) from Shut Down Line for a breakdown of the Western Conference first-round series and previews of Nashville - Phoenix and Los Angeles - St. Louis.



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Playoff Preview Podcasts: Blues - Sharks

The latest and classiest edition of the Driving Play Playoff Podcast features a discussion of the St. Louis Blues and San Jose Sharks series out West. This installment features commentary from Jared (@jaredlunsford), Corey (@ShutdownLine), Triumph (@Triumph44) and myself (@chasew12).

Enjoy.



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The Driving Play Podcast - 2012 Playoff Race Edition

Good evening, friends. We're back again with another edition of the Driving Play Podcast, this time discussing the tight playoff races in the Eastern and Western Conferences. We are happy to be joined by Corey Sznajder of the Carolina Hurricanes blog Shutdown Line. Just as a production note, we recorded this podcast yesterday before Buffalo's win over Washington, the Pens losing to the Islanders and the Rangers beating the Wild. Small sample sizes and having confidence in Dale Hunter can be cruel mistresses.

Enjoy.



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The Driving Play Podcast - Trade Deadline Recap

Good evening, friends. We're finally back with the final installment of our NHL trade deadline series of podcasts. This time, we're evaluating the winners, losers, and the catastrophe that was Scott Howson and the Columbus Blue Jackets.

We were also privileged to again be joined by Dirk Hoag of On the Forecheck to get his reaction to our take on Nashville's deadline dealings.

All four of us were able to get together to record this edition, so go ahead and give it a listen.



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Is the Power Play Its Own Beast?

To what extent are even-strength and power-play performance linked? If your team is an offensive juggernaut five-on-five, should you expect them to dominate with a man advantage?

One might say that hockey skills are hockey skills and whatever helps you score at even strength should carry over. Thinking more about it, though, there are lot of aspects of the game that are in one but not the other. If your team excels at the breakout, On the Forecheck or has a mean neutral-zone trap then that won't help you too much when the other team simply clears the puck and waits for you at the blue line.

In the analytical community, the most-cited metric for power-play quality is shooting rate. See the recent article that got me thinking about this by Derek Zona or the definitive article on the subject by Gabe Desjardins. Since I am using 5-on-4 shots for per 60, the most obvious stat for comparison is 5-on-5 shots for per 60. So the question at hand is how correlated are 5-on-5 and 5-on-4 shooting rates.

Using data from BTN, over the last four full seasons the correlation between shooting rates 5-on-5 and 5-on-4 is 0.4. Normally I would put out an R^2 interpretation, but for this relationship it isn't one driving the other but some hockey skills and tactics driving both. Here is a graph showing the relationship:

With a correlation of 0.4 one could say there is a relationship between the two, but it isn't particularly strong. Luck is obviously one factor. We tend to focus on shooting rates because that reduces the luck factor, but it is still present. That is particularly true for the power play due to reduced sample sizes.

Here is a chart showing the average difference between 5-on-4 shooting rate and the one predicted by the above regression formula for each team. You can think of this as how good they have been 5-on-4 compared to offensively 5-on-5.

Team	Difference
S.J	8.19
ANA	7.94
DET	6.21
MTL	3.93
WSH	3.57
VAN	3.41
N.J	3.31
MIN	2.04
T.B	1.89
DAL	1.64
L.A	1.57
CBJ	-0.17
FLA	-0.22
BOS	-0.76
COL	-1.03
PIT	-1.09
BUF	-1.67
CGY	-1.75
NYR	-1.75
TOR	-1.9
PHI	-1.99
OTT	-2.44
STL	-2.45
NSH	-2.69
ATL	-2.76
NYI	-2.89
PHX	-3.62
CHI	-3.67
CAR	-4.25
EDM	-6.59

As you can see, the Sharks, Ducks and Red Wings are outliers at the positive end. Their power plays have performed better than you would expect based on their 5-on-5 shooting rates. The Sharks under McLellan have been very strong with the man advantage. The huge outlier in the graph above is the ungodly 72.6 5-on-4 shots/60 they put up last year. They currently lead the league this year at 68.8. Getting slightly off-topic, I think a safe prediction is for the Sharks to improve their power-play results since they top the league in 5-on-4 SF/60 but are only 10th in PP%.

On the bad end, the Edmonton Oilers stand alone. This is saying something, since the Oilers haven't exactly been machine gunning pucks at the net 5-on-5. Going by 5-on-4 shots for per 60 they have finished the last four years 30th, 30th, 30th and, you guessed it, 30th. This year Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can barely miss on the power play and perhaps he's helped their shooting rate out as well since they are currently all the way up to 24th in the league.

Given how consistently the Sharks, Ducks and Red Wings have outperformed expectations with the man advantage and how terrible the Oilers' power play has been, I think it's pretty clear that there is some skill component of the power play that is distinct from 5-on-5.

Driving Play Season Preview: Teams 6-4, The Second Tier Elites

6. Detroit Red Wings

Key Statistics:

Fenwick- 53.6%

Even Strength Shooting%-8.5%

Even Strength Save%-.922

2010-2011 Summary

Once again, Detroit was near the top of the league in both territorial play and in points, all this despite losing 26 games from Pavel Datsyuk, 13 games from Dan Cleary, 19 games from Brian Rafalski, and 15 games from Brad Stuart.  Detroit got decent enough goaltending, as well as good years from all of their supplemental pieces.  They simply ran into a slightly better team in the playoffs.

Offseason Changes

The only major move made this summer was the retirement of Brian Rafalski and his subsequent replacement with Ian White.  As Triumph and I chronicled, this was a definite upgrade for Detroit.  White is a superior player who comes at less than half the price.  The saved cap space didn’t really come into play in further offseason moves, though it also gives Detroit a cushion if they needed to make an in-season move. 

Key Questions for 2011-2012

Is Detroit deep enough along the blueline?    

• While Detroit features a formidable top 4, I believe there are legitimate concerns past that point, especially in the event of injury.  Jonathan Ericsson took a big step backward last year, and Jakub Kindl has shown little to give the impression that he wouldn’t be overmatched playing heavy minutes.  Other than that, I think forecasting Detroit’s success is pretty straightforward.  This is largely the same team as years past, and every NHL fan can understand what that means.

5. Pittsburgh Penguins

Key Statistics

Fenwick- 54.3%

Even Strength Shooting%-6.8%

Even Strength Save%-.929

2010-2011 Summary

In a word: injuries.  Pittsburgh’s two best players spent significant time on Injured Reserve, with Evgeni Malkin missing nearly 40 games with various knee injuries and Sidney Crosby missing 41 games after noted headhunter David Steckel viciously ran Crosby in the Winter Classic.*  The Penguins still managed to put together a good season, even finishing first in the league in Fenwick, but the ability to consistently put pucks in the net was glaringly obvious. Thanks to a great season from Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh was able to remain relevant, finishing with 106 points. 

Offseason Changes

Pittsburgh lost two bottom-6 forwards to division rivals with Mike Rupp’s departure to the Rangers and Max Talbot’s move to Philadelphia. Outside of that, their roster will generally look the same as last year, with the most major addition coming with the signing of veteran winger Steve Sullivan. 

Key Questions for 2011-2012

At what point can we expect Sidney Crosby to return?

• Crosby has already been ruled out of the season opener, which while not a good sign is still not the end of the world assuming Malkin and Staal remain healthy.  But still, the team needs him in the line-up.  A Crosby-less Penguins team still makes the playoff, but #87 is the difference between an elite team and a team that makes it as a bottom seed before losing in the first round.

Should Evgeni Malkin move to wing?

• This only happens if Crosby is healthy, but is a move I think should be made (and is a move a few of us on this blog have talked about for a while).  Malkin’s contributions at Even Strength have fallen each of the last few seasons.  He’s never been great at faceoffs, and center depth (again, assuming Crosby’s health) isn’t much of an issue for Pittsburgh, and I believe the lightened responsibility could help bring his game back to where it was in 2008.   

* - Don’t worry, I’m only joking.

4. San Jose Sharks

Key Statistics from 2010-2011

Fenwick- 53.7%

Even Strength Shooting%-7.2%

Even Strength Save%-.942

2010-2011 Summary

The Sharks had a pretty boring year last year (I mean this in a good way), as they won another Pacific Division title and again came within one postseason round of the Stanley Cup Finals.  San Jose’s biggest story last year was the emergence of Logan Couture, who centered what was San Jose’s best line for most of the year, and whose presence ultimately made Devin Setoguchi expendable (more on this later). 

Offseason Changes

Outside of Washington, San Jose had the busiest summer of any of the NHL’s elites.  The offseason bonanza began on Draft Day, with Doug Wilson sending Devin Setoguchi, top prospect Charlie Coyle, and a 2011 1^st round pick to the Minnesota Wild for Brent Burns.  This was the first of two blockbusters between the Sharks and Wild, as the two teams swapped All-Star wingers, with the Sharks sending Dany Heatley and receiving Martin Havlat.  The Sharks also signed Michal Handzus, ostensibly to play the role of 3^rd line center.

Key Questions for 2011-2012

How will Joe Pavelski do on the wing and whom will he play with?

• Logan Couture’s rise gave Doug Wilson the flexibility to move a top 6 winger in Devin Setoguchi, primarily because he had another top 6 forward who was then being used on the 3^rd line.  I think it’ll be interesting to see what (if any) impact this has on Pavelski’s game.  I also think it’ll be interesting to see what line he plays with, though this will obviously change throughout the year.

Were last year’s troubles on the PK just an aberration or a legitimate cause for concern?

• Known in previous years for having one of the league’s best kills, San Jose had an uncharacteristically bad year on the PK.  Michal Handzus should help up front, and Colin White and Brent Burns should help on the back end, but it still remains to be seen if that is enough, especially with the departure of Jamal Mayers and Scott Nichol.

The final 3 will be posted tomorrow morning.  

Here is a recap of our rankings to date:

30. Edmonton

29. Colorado

28. Dallas

27. New York Islanders

26. Minnesota

25. Ottawa

24. Toronto

23. Florida

22. Phoenix

21. Winnipeg

20. Anaheim

19. Carolina

18. Calgary

17. St. Louis

16. Nashville

15. New York Rangers

14. Columbus

13. Buffalo

12. Philadelphia

11. Boston

10. Montreal

9. Tampa Bay

8. New Jersey

7. Los Angeles

6. Detroit

5. Pittsburgh*

4. San Jose

* - With Sidney Crosby