Good evening friends; below is another edition of our long, lost Driving Play Podcast. In this edition, we were lucky to be joined by our good friend Alex Pocrnick, who we are delighted to say adds an interesting perspective to the program in that he WATCHES, yes, WATCHES the games. Once we got past that bit of oddity, we were able to record a great show with discussion about the Ryan O'Reilly offer sheet, the state of the Flames in general, and some bonus chatter about the Anaheim Ducks and Toronto Maple Leafs.
I'll work on getting the iTunes links revived shortly, but for now here is a link to our RSS feed, with options to stream or download the podcast below.
One minor edit: when we recorded the show, the O' Reilly to waivers story hadn't broke yet, so that would obviously change our opinions on Feaster a bit.
Thanks for listening, and enjoy!
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Showing posts with label Anaheim Ducks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Anaheim Ducks. Show all posts
Monday, March 4, 2013
Friday, February 24, 2012
Driving Play Podcast Take Deux
Hello, today. With the deadline fast approaching, the Driving Play podcast marches on. This time, we're privileged to be joined by none other than Derek Zona of The Copper & Blue to discuss the sellers of the Western Conference.
Though Jeff Carter was actually traded today, do your best to let it sink in that Scott Howson only got Jack Johnson and a first round pick in return.
Anyway, enjoy.
Download (Right Click and choose "Save Link As...")
Though Jeff Carter was actually traded today, do your best to let it sink in that Scott Howson only got Jack Johnson and a first round pick in return.
Anyway, enjoy.
Download (Right Click and choose "Save Link As...")
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Is the Power Play Its Own Beast?
To what extent are even-strength and power-play performance linked? If your team is an offensive juggernaut five-on-five, should you expect them to dominate with a man advantage?
One might say that hockey skills are hockey skills and whatever helps you score at even strength should carry over. Thinking more about it, though, there are lot of aspects of the game that are in one but not the other. If your team excels at the breakout, On the Forecheck or has a mean neutral-zone trap then that won't help you too much when the other team simply clears the puck and waits for you at the blue line.
In the analytical community, the most-cited metric for power-play quality is shooting rate. See the recent article that got me thinking about this by Derek Zona or the definitive article on the subject by Gabe Desjardins. Since I am using 5-on-4 shots for per 60, the most obvious stat for comparison is 5-on-5 shots for per 60. So the question at hand is how correlated are 5-on-5 and 5-on-4 shooting rates.
Using data from BTN, over the last four full seasons the correlation between shooting rates 5-on-5 and 5-on-4 is 0.4. Normally I would put out an R^2 interpretation, but for this relationship it isn't one driving the other but some hockey skills and tactics driving both. Here is a graph showing the relationship:
With a correlation of 0.4 one could say there is a relationship between the two, but it isn't particularly strong. Luck is obviously one factor. We tend to focus on shooting rates because that reduces the luck factor, but it is still present. That is particularly true for the power play due to reduced sample sizes.
Here is a chart showing the average difference between 5-on-4 shooting rate and the one predicted by the above regression formula for each team. You can think of this as how good they have been 5-on-4 compared to offensively 5-on-5.
As you can see, the Sharks, Ducks and Red Wings are outliers at the positive end. Their power plays have performed better than you would expect based on their 5-on-5 shooting rates. The Sharks under McLellan have been very strong with the man advantage. The huge outlier in the graph above is the ungodly 72.6 5-on-4 shots/60 they put up last year. They currently lead the league this year at 68.8. Getting slightly off-topic, I think a safe prediction is for the Sharks to improve their power-play results since they top the league in 5-on-4 SF/60 but are only 10th in PP%.
On the bad end, the Edmonton Oilers stand alone. This is saying something, since the Oilers haven't exactly been machine gunning pucks at the net 5-on-5. Going by 5-on-4 shots for per 60 they have finished the last four years 30th, 30th, 30th and, you guessed it, 30th. This year Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can barely miss on the power play and perhaps he's helped their shooting rate out as well since they are currently all the way up to 24th in the league.
Given how consistently the Sharks, Ducks and Red Wings have outperformed expectations with the man advantage and how terrible the Oilers' power play has been, I think it's pretty clear that there is some skill component of the power play that is distinct from 5-on-5.
One might say that hockey skills are hockey skills and whatever helps you score at even strength should carry over. Thinking more about it, though, there are lot of aspects of the game that are in one but not the other. If your team excels at the breakout, On the Forecheck or has a mean neutral-zone trap then that won't help you too much when the other team simply clears the puck and waits for you at the blue line.
In the analytical community, the most-cited metric for power-play quality is shooting rate. See the recent article that got me thinking about this by Derek Zona or the definitive article on the subject by Gabe Desjardins. Since I am using 5-on-4 shots for per 60, the most obvious stat for comparison is 5-on-5 shots for per 60. So the question at hand is how correlated are 5-on-5 and 5-on-4 shooting rates.
Using data from BTN, over the last four full seasons the correlation between shooting rates 5-on-5 and 5-on-4 is 0.4. Normally I would put out an R^2 interpretation, but for this relationship it isn't one driving the other but some hockey skills and tactics driving both. Here is a graph showing the relationship:
With a correlation of 0.4 one could say there is a relationship between the two, but it isn't particularly strong. Luck is obviously one factor. We tend to focus on shooting rates because that reduces the luck factor, but it is still present. That is particularly true for the power play due to reduced sample sizes.Here is a chart showing the average difference between 5-on-4 shooting rate and the one predicted by the above regression formula for each team. You can think of this as how good they have been 5-on-4 compared to offensively 5-on-5.
| Team | Difference |
| S.J | 8.19 |
| ANA | 7.94 |
| DET | 6.21 |
| MTL | 3.93 |
| WSH | 3.57 |
| VAN | 3.41 |
| N.J | 3.31 |
| MIN | 2.04 |
| T.B | 1.89 |
| DAL | 1.64 |
| L.A | 1.57 |
| CBJ | -0.17 |
| FLA | -0.22 |
| BOS | -0.76 |
| COL | -1.03 |
| PIT | -1.09 |
| BUF | -1.67 |
| CGY | -1.75 |
| NYR | -1.75 |
| TOR | -1.9 |
| PHI | -1.99 |
| OTT | -2.44 |
| STL | -2.45 |
| NSH | -2.69 |
| ATL | -2.76 |
| NYI | -2.89 |
| PHX | -3.62 |
| CHI | -3.67 |
| CAR | -4.25 |
| EDM | -6.59 |
As you can see, the Sharks, Ducks and Red Wings are outliers at the positive end. Their power plays have performed better than you would expect based on their 5-on-5 shooting rates. The Sharks under McLellan have been very strong with the man advantage. The huge outlier in the graph above is the ungodly 72.6 5-on-4 shots/60 they put up last year. They currently lead the league this year at 68.8. Getting slightly off-topic, I think a safe prediction is for the Sharks to improve their power-play results since they top the league in 5-on-4 SF/60 but are only 10th in PP%.
On the bad end, the Edmonton Oilers stand alone. This is saying something, since the Oilers haven't exactly been machine gunning pucks at the net 5-on-5. Going by 5-on-4 shots for per 60 they have finished the last four years 30th, 30th, 30th and, you guessed it, 30th. This year Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can barely miss on the power play and perhaps he's helped their shooting rate out as well since they are currently all the way up to 24th in the league.
Given how consistently the Sharks, Ducks and Red Wings have outperformed expectations with the man advantage and how terrible the Oilers' power play has been, I think it's pretty clear that there is some skill component of the power play that is distinct from 5-on-5.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Driving Play Season Preview: 20-22, The Mediocre
And we're back, slogging our way through the Driving Play season preview. I got what could be called the playoff bubble teams. I'd prefer to think of them as the guy in your apartment building that plays his guitar all the time - not good enough to be impress you but, unlike the guy in your dorm that played his guitar all the time, not awful enough to be impressively bad.
To the surprise of no one, I am taking a nerdy approach. For each of these previews, I'll give the team's Fenwick and Corsi percentage, power play and penalty kill percentage, and Corsi rate for the first shift following a faceoff at each end. Fenwick/Corsi percentage is the percent of shots, including missed shots and for Corsi blocked shots, taken by them. 50%, taking as many shots as your opponents, is average. PP% and PK% are the usual stats. PDO is a measure of luck. It's the sum of shooting percentage and save percentage, in this case I'm using all even strength. Ozone/Dzone faceoff shift Corsi are two new stats I've been working on. They're the Corsi rate for the time between the faceoff and the first player leaving the ice. Here's a link to a fuller description.
GET ON WITH IT
#22: Phoenix Coyotes
Initial thought: Please move to Portland somehow.
Stats:
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 49.5%/50.3%
PDO: 1.009
PP%: 15.9% (23rd)
PK%: 78.4% (26th)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 41.97 (14th)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -35.628 (10th)
2010-2011 Summary:
Last year Phoenix was a little-above average 5-on-5. They split possession pretty evenly with their opponents and got good enough goaltending from Ilya Bryzgalov to make the Flyers go insane, which Chase covered quite well from the Flyers' perspective here, here and will do again in an article he's said would be up in a few days for the last three weeks. Special teams were a problem all the way around. Last year they were actually better with a man advantage than they had been the last few years, having finished third from the bottom in PP% for both the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 seasons.
It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em:
Bryzgalov wasn't coming back so the biggest move that didn't make itself was trading Lee Stempniak for Daymond Langkow. Scott Reynolds at Copper and Blue argued that it was a good, risk-reducing move for the Flames. I think it was a good deal for Phoenix, but definitely risky. As noted in that article, Langkow's possession numbers have been good but his scoring has taken a dive as he's aged. The risk is that on top of aging, he missed all but 4 games last year with neck and spinal cord damage suffered at the end of the 2009-2010 season. If he can get back to driving play, that'll look like a steal for Phoenix but there's some chance they traded a decent winger for very little.
They'll make the playoffs if...
they get some decent goaltending. Doing some research for this preview, I found an article on the coming Phoenix goalie battle that started "When the Coyotes signed goaltender Mike Smith during the off-season, some assumed the starting job was his to lose." Him?
Conclusion
I rated Phoenix 19th, while my colleagues' average put them 25th. This is probably because I don't value the goalie position as much as most. They've got a decent group of skaters with the potential to be even better if Langkow can produce. Like a lot of teams in this group, I wouldn't be surprised to see them comfortably in the playoffs or well out of the hunt.
#21: Winnipeg Jets
Initial thought: Meet the new Jets. Same as the old Jets?
2009-2010 Stats
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 49.9%/48.8%
PDO: 99.1%
PP%: 18.3% (12th)
PK%: 77.5% (27th)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 33.431 (25th)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -60.533 (30th)
2010-2011 Summary:
Last year, theThrashers Jets were a team of two halves. Triumph covered this quite well here. The short of it is that in the first half or so of the season, Atlanta did quite well by goal-differential standards but their possession numbers weren't good. In the second half they picked up their possession numbers but their goals went negative. Goaltending was mixed as Chris Mason was bad but Ondrej Pavelec did well. All signs pointed to a team closer to average than most people realized, but a little below.
It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em:
Normally I'd talk about a big offseason move but Winnipeg really didn't make any that jump out. The biggest change is probably bringing in Claude Noël as head coach. Noël has a decent amount of experience coaching hockey, including professional hockey, including professional hockey in Winnipeg but has only been head coach in the NHL for 24 games for Columbus in 2009-2010. The highlight of his resume is leading the Milwaukee Admirals to their lone Calder Cup in 2004. He spent last season in Winnipeg as head coach of the Moose. I don't think it's too high in terms of risk or reward.
They'll make the playoffs if...
they play like they did in the second half of last season but the shots go in like they did in the first half. See above. To be honest I don't like Winnipeg's chances. Of the teams above them last season, they are better than Toronto and about even with Carolina but far below New Jersey, and all the playoff teams. They'll need a lot of bounces to go their way.
Conclusion
I will like the Jets' chances better if and when they move to the West. At the risk of opening a can of worms, I think the West is stronger near the top but has a weaker group of teams fighting for those last few spots. Something I'm going to be watching for is home-ice advantage. The atmosphere at MTS Centre should be amazing and the Jets will benefit from their opponents often coming in from a long trip. Given Winnipeg's tough travel themselves, I think we'll see a big difference between home and away results.
#20: Anaheim Ducks
Initial thought: There are 10 teams worse than them? Wait, they finished in the top 10 overall last year?
2009-2010 Stats
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 45.3%/44.5%
PDO: 100.6%
PP%: 23.5% (3rd)
PK%: 81.3% (19th)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 31.991 (27th)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -56.561 (29th)
2010-2011 Summary:
I'll start with the positive. Anaheim had one of the best power-play units in the league. Despite Corey Perry's 50-goal season, Teemu Selanne actually led the way with 16 PP goals. This does not appear to be a fluke; they finished 5th in PP% the previous two seasons and last year they were second in 5-on-4 shots for rate, according to BTN. 5-on-5 the Ducks were just dreadful.
It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em:
I was trying to decide which trade with the Oilers to write about - giving up Sutton for Foster or a 2013 second-round pick for Cogliano. Then I fell asleep.
They'll make the playoffs if...
they start, shall we say, drawing penalties like the Hurricanes. Another factor is the health of Jonas Hiller. He has been quite good over the last few seasons but missed a lot of last season with vertigo. He played well his first preseason game against the Canucks but it remains to be seen whether he can maintain his health or relapses like Lucille 2. Elite goaltending and power play should get them in.
Conclusion:
Anaheim are an interesting case for something Matt brought up and we'll be working on. They have top goaltending but terrible possession numbers 5-on-5. Add to that a top PP and an argument could be made for them being anywhere from the top 15 to one of the worst teams. I rated them 24th, for what little it's worth. Despite that low ranking, I think they are the only team in the group I'm writing on that has a shot to make a deep run in the playoffs if it all goes well for them at the right time.
Coming Tomorrow: 19-16
To the surprise of no one, I am taking a nerdy approach. For each of these previews, I'll give the team's Fenwick and Corsi percentage, power play and penalty kill percentage, and Corsi rate for the first shift following a faceoff at each end. Fenwick/Corsi percentage is the percent of shots, including missed shots and for Corsi blocked shots, taken by them. 50%, taking as many shots as your opponents, is average. PP% and PK% are the usual stats. PDO is a measure of luck. It's the sum of shooting percentage and save percentage, in this case I'm using all even strength. Ozone/Dzone faceoff shift Corsi are two new stats I've been working on. They're the Corsi rate for the time between the faceoff and the first player leaving the ice. Here's a link to a fuller description.
GET ON WITH IT
#22: Phoenix Coyotes
Initial thought: Please move to Portland somehow.
Stats:
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 49.5%/50.3%
PDO: 1.009
PP%: 15.9% (23rd)
PK%: 78.4% (26th)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 41.97 (14th)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -35.628 (10th)
2010-2011 Summary:
Last year Phoenix was a little-above average 5-on-5. They split possession pretty evenly with their opponents and got good enough goaltending from Ilya Bryzgalov to make the Flyers go insane, which Chase covered quite well from the Flyers' perspective here, here and will do again in an article he's said would be up in a few days for the last three weeks. Special teams were a problem all the way around. Last year they were actually better with a man advantage than they had been the last few years, having finished third from the bottom in PP% for both the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 seasons.
It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em:
Bryzgalov wasn't coming back so the biggest move that didn't make itself was trading Lee Stempniak for Daymond Langkow. Scott Reynolds at Copper and Blue argued that it was a good, risk-reducing move for the Flames. I think it was a good deal for Phoenix, but definitely risky. As noted in that article, Langkow's possession numbers have been good but his scoring has taken a dive as he's aged. The risk is that on top of aging, he missed all but 4 games last year with neck and spinal cord damage suffered at the end of the 2009-2010 season. If he can get back to driving play, that'll look like a steal for Phoenix but there's some chance they traded a decent winger for very little.
They'll make the playoffs if...
they get some decent goaltending. Doing some research for this preview, I found an article on the coming Phoenix goalie battle that started "When the Coyotes signed goaltender Mike Smith during the off-season, some assumed the starting job was his to lose." Him?
Conclusion
I rated Phoenix 19th, while my colleagues' average put them 25th. This is probably because I don't value the goalie position as much as most. They've got a decent group of skaters with the potential to be even better if Langkow can produce. Like a lot of teams in this group, I wouldn't be surprised to see them comfortably in the playoffs or well out of the hunt.
#21: Winnipeg Jets
Initial thought: Meet the new Jets. Same as the old Jets?
2009-2010 Stats
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 49.9%/48.8%
PDO: 99.1%
PP%: 18.3% (12th)
PK%: 77.5% (27th)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 33.431 (25th)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -60.533 (30th)
2010-2011 Summary:
Last year, the
It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em:
Normally I'd talk about a big offseason move but Winnipeg really didn't make any that jump out. The biggest change is probably bringing in Claude Noël as head coach. Noël has a decent amount of experience coaching hockey, including professional hockey, including professional hockey in Winnipeg but has only been head coach in the NHL for 24 games for Columbus in 2009-2010. The highlight of his resume is leading the Milwaukee Admirals to their lone Calder Cup in 2004. He spent last season in Winnipeg as head coach of the Moose. I don't think it's too high in terms of risk or reward.
They'll make the playoffs if...
they play like they did in the second half of last season but the shots go in like they did in the first half. See above. To be honest I don't like Winnipeg's chances. Of the teams above them last season, they are better than Toronto and about even with Carolina but far below New Jersey, and all the playoff teams. They'll need a lot of bounces to go their way.
Conclusion
I will like the Jets' chances better if and when they move to the West. At the risk of opening a can of worms, I think the West is stronger near the top but has a weaker group of teams fighting for those last few spots. Something I'm going to be watching for is home-ice advantage. The atmosphere at MTS Centre should be amazing and the Jets will benefit from their opponents often coming in from a long trip. Given Winnipeg's tough travel themselves, I think we'll see a big difference between home and away results.
#20: Anaheim Ducks
Initial thought: There are 10 teams worse than them? Wait, they finished in the top 10 overall last year?
2009-2010 Stats
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 45.3%/44.5%
PDO: 100.6%
PP%: 23.5% (3rd)
PK%: 81.3% (19th)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 31.991 (27th)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -56.561 (29th)
2010-2011 Summary:
I'll start with the positive. Anaheim had one of the best power-play units in the league. Despite Corey Perry's 50-goal season, Teemu Selanne actually led the way with 16 PP goals. This does not appear to be a fluke; they finished 5th in PP% the previous two seasons and last year they were second in 5-on-4 shots for rate, according to BTN. 5-on-5 the Ducks were just dreadful.
It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em:
I was trying to decide which trade with the Oilers to write about - giving up Sutton for Foster or a 2013 second-round pick for Cogliano. Then I fell asleep.
They'll make the playoffs if...
they start, shall we say, drawing penalties like the Hurricanes. Another factor is the health of Jonas Hiller. He has been quite good over the last few seasons but missed a lot of last season with vertigo. He played well his first preseason game against the Canucks but it remains to be seen whether he can maintain his health or relapses like Lucille 2. Elite goaltending and power play should get them in.
Conclusion:
Anaheim are an interesting case for something Matt brought up and we'll be working on. They have top goaltending but terrible possession numbers 5-on-5. Add to that a top PP and an argument could be made for them being anywhere from the top 15 to one of the worst teams. I rated them 24th, for what little it's worth. Despite that low ranking, I think they are the only team in the group I'm writing on that has a shot to make a deep run in the playoffs if it all goes well for them at the right time.
Coming Tomorrow: 19-16
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