The Driving Play Podcast Returns!

Good evening friends; below is another edition of our long, lost Driving Play Podcast. In this edition, we were lucky to be joined by our good friend Alex Pocrnick, who we are delighted to say adds an interesting perspective to the program in that he WATCHES, yes, WATCHES the games. Once we got past that bit of oddity, we were able to record a great show with discussion about the Ryan O'Reilly offer sheet, the state of the Flames in general, and some bonus chatter about the Anaheim Ducks and Toronto Maple Leafs.

I'll work on getting the iTunes links revived shortly, but for now here is a link to our RSS feed, with options to stream or download the podcast below.

One minor edit: when we recorded the show, the O' Reilly to waivers story hadn't broke yet, so that would obviously change our opinions on Feaster a bit.

Thanks for listening, and enjoy!



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Sunday Night Links (6/24)

Welcome to the first installment of Sunday Night Links, a new feature here where we list a few articles we find noteworthy from the previous week.  Discussion is obviously encouraged, and if there's something you want to add, feel free to drop us a line either here or on Twitter.

Without further ado:

• On Jordan Staal and Brandon Sutter (Canes Country)
• Thoughts on the First Round (Hockey Prospectus)
• Ray Shero's Big Plans (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)
• JVR and Burke (Globe and Mail
• Bobby Ryan, Rick Nash, and the Anti-Ray Shero (Puck Daddy)

What has been most interesting to me is the next chapter in the ongoing Rick Nash saga, and how Ray Shero's handling of Jordan Staal is an example of a general manager who understands asset management and how to maximize value in an awkward situation.  Howson's intransigence has cost his team a substantial amount of value, and his decision to pass on moving him at the deadline has just been matched in stupidity by the decision to wait until July. 

Could Luongo Stay?

Outside of Niklas Lidstrom’s playing status next year, no story will dominate the hockey world quite like the fast-growing goalie controversy in Vancouver. The Canucks certainly have an awkward situation on their hands – on one hand they have an elite goalie who has fallen out of favor with the majority of the fanbase, (unfairly) becoming the scapegoat for a team that has come up short on their expectations. On the other hand, they have a younger, cheaper goalie that has shown great promise, winning over the Vancouver fanbase in the process. I make two assumptions here, one is Vancouver will not keep both, the other is that other teams will make offers for Schneider. I do believe Luongo will be the odd man out, but I certainly do not believe that as strongly as others, and I will explain this below.

Ostensibly, Vancouver will begin the process by comparing the value of Luongo’s contract to a range of contracts that they theoretically see themselves giving to Schneider. But there is more – and at this point is where I believe many stop the analysis. The very factors that make Schneider more valuable than Luongo to the Vancouver Canucks also make him more valuable to every other team.

As outsiders, there is no way we can accurately speculate on just how much more valuable they see Schneider. It’s easier (but still more difficult, and still beyond the scope of this article) to identify each player’s relative trade value. What we can do, though, is talk about how the trade value of one impacts the necessary value of the other, and from there, how that relationship impacts Vancouver’s ultimate decision.

We begin with obvious – there is a whole lot of uncertainty in the market for Roberto Luongo. On production alone he is a hot commodity, but his contract precludes many teams (and possibly teams that have been speculated as trade partners) from acquiring him. There are other teams that both need goaltending and can handle the financial burden (Chicago and Edmonton), but it is not clear that Vancouver is willing to trade an elite player to one of their biggest rivals. I believe the decisions of these smaller market teams (Columbus, Florida, Tampa Bay) on whether or not they are willing to take on the burden to be one of the biggest factors in Vancouver’s ultimate decision, because if the market for Luongo becomes liquid, then we can almost guarantee that he’s gone. But if Vancouver finds the offers to be lacking, then the possibility of an offer for Schneider that closes the gap between the value I mentioned earlier becomes more and more likely.

In other words, there is an inflection point in this scenario – some point where Schneider’s advantage over Luongo is mitigated by the value Vancouver could acquire by trading Schneider. What that exact point is can only be known by Vancouver, but assuming that Luongo has played his last game as a Canuck neglects a very important part of this calculus.

Driving Play Podcast - Take (Forty)5 & Listen!

As the day of truth approaches, we're again back with the fifth edition of the Driving Play podcast. For our Eastern Conference middling teams podcast including the Canadiens, Leafs, Panthers, Jets, Senators, and Devils, we're joined by Julian of the fantastic Maple Leafs blog Pension Plan Puppets.

Thanks to everyone for listening, and we'll be back soon to discuss the deadline winners, losers and everyone in between. Enjoy.



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