While others were spending a nice holiday weekend with their families, we were busy recording previews for each playoff series. We'll be rolling them out over the next couple days, starting the series with Wednesday games.
First up is the Detroit - Nashville series. We were joined by JJfromKansas (@jjfromkansas) from Winging It In Motown for his Red Wings expertise and Dirk Hoag (@forechecker) from On the Forecheck bringing the high level of insight on the Predators that we have come to expect and appreciate.
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Showing posts with label Nashville Predators. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nashville Predators. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Driving Play Podcast - Take Three & Fore(checker)
The latest two additions of the Driving Play podcast come in a bit of a somber mood. We had originally recorded an extensive chronicling of the Western Conference buyers, but like your favorite European in the playoffs, Jared's hard drive couldn't handle the pressure and gave out on us.
In addition to the excellent discussion we had with Geoff Detweiler of Broad Street Hockey about the buyers of the East, we luckily salvaged an interview about the Nashville Predators with another of our favorite bloggers, Dirk Hoag of On the Forecheck.
Below are the third and fourth editions of the Driving Play podcast, first with Geoff and then the interview with Dirk. Enjoy.
Eastern Conference Buyers
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Discussing the Predators with Dirk Hoag
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In addition to the excellent discussion we had with Geoff Detweiler of Broad Street Hockey about the buyers of the East, we luckily salvaged an interview about the Nashville Predators with another of our favorite bloggers, Dirk Hoag of On the Forecheck.
Below are the third and fourth editions of the Driving Play podcast, first with Geoff and then the interview with Dirk. Enjoy.
Download (Right Click and choose "Save Link As...")
Download (Right Click and choose "Save Link As...")
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Can Rinne Earn All That Money?
The Pekka Rinne contract extension a couple weeks back remains the most interesting off-ice move of the season. It touches on a lot of things we have written about and discussed behind the scenes, most notably the role of luck and skill in results and whether it's better to build a team by spending big on goaltending or leave that money for the skaters - see Matt's thought-provoking post on the subject. The Predators are also in a peculiar spot as a team that has spent near the floor in the past but now will perhaps change gears and spend closer to the cap. This is all happening, and almost certainly related to, with Weber (RFA) and Suter (UFA) coming up as free agents this next offseason. Chase covered the cap/budget impact quite well last week. There is a lot to unpack here and we'll be revisiting this deal, looking at Nashville's situation and trying to answer more general questions like how much top goaltenders should be paid over the course of the season.
In this article, I will look at how his contract compares to those of other top goaltenders, at least those paid like one. The question at hand is how much he has to contribute for his $7M a year to be reasonable compared to other big-money goaltender deals. I am ignoring several key things like regression to the mean that might impact the overall value of goalies. In other words, I'm not looking at more general things like whether goaltenders as a whole are overpaid, or even if Rinne will be but rather what he has to do for us to say he's not overpaid relative to other top-dollar goaltenders.
Everywhere Is WAR
The nice thing about analyzing goalies is that we have a large number of discrete events and while there are teammate, opponent and rink/scorekeeper effects, the strength of a goaltender's performance pretty much boils down to how well they stopped the puck in different situations. Goaltender analysis is more similar to hitters in baseball than it is to skaters in hockey. The metric I'll use is WAR, Wins Above Replacement, which is very similar to the baseball stat of the same name. The idea is to look at how many goals the goalie in question gave up and compare that to what a typical replacement-level goalie (think free agent paid the minimum salary) would have allowed on the same number and type (ES, PK, PP) of shots. We can translate this number into wins to see how many wins each goaltender gave their team over what a replacement-level goalie would have.
I'm far from the first to use this method. As far as I understand it, GVT follows a similar approach for goalies. For a few other examples, Gabe Desjardins did something very similar two years ago over at Puck Prospectus and there was a fanpost on the subject by DoctorMyBrainHurts at Gabe's usual home, Arctic Ice Hockey. Philadelphia's goalie issues and the signing of Bryzgalov motivated some similar work by our friends Kent Wilson and Geoff Detweiler. With skaters it's rather more complicated, but for goalie analysis this approach is pretty clearly the way to go.
This is already one of the longest intros of all time so I won't go too far into detail about exactly how I calculated this. For replacement level, I took took the combined results of goalies that were not in the top 60 in games started for each season after the lockout. Another difference between my work and the others linked above is that I use 5.52 goals per win instead of the usual 6.0, which I feel is more accurate based on regressing league points on non-empty-net goal differential since the lockout. This warrants an article of its own, which I'll post later this week.
What does $4+ million buy these days?
Capgeek only goes back a couple years and nhlnumbers, which I used, only stretches back to 2007-2008. In those four seasons, we have a sample of 60 in which a goaltender had an annualized cap hit of $4M or greater. Here is a scatter plot showing the relationship between goaltender wins-above-replcement and the cap hit minus the minimum player salary. Something to note is that there isn't a very strong relationship between a goaltender's cap hit and how much value in wins he turned out to provide to his team. This is a sign that maybe high-price goaltenders as a group are overpaid, but I'll leave that for future work as it's outside the scope of this article.
The regression equation you see tells us what we should expect a goaltender to produce for a given cap hit over the minimum salary. The last two seasons the minimum has been half a million dollars. Going by that, here is what we should expect out of goaltenders in this range:
So 4 million dollars buys you about three and a half wins.
How productive must Rinne be?
And finally we are ready to answer the question at hand. How well does Rinne need to play for his contract to compare well to other high-dollar goalie contracts? Looking at the last row of the table, we see that producing a WAR of about 8.57 a year is about right. Here are his last 3 seasons, which comprise 167 of his 168 career starts:
This averages out to a WAR of 6.56 per season, far below the expected 8.57. However, there might be two reasons to be optimistic. His number of starts per year has gone up each season and even on a per-start basis his WAR was substantially higher last year than the first two. While our gut instinct may chalk the latter up to random variance, the starts going up each year is obviously important since it's hard to provide value from the bench or IR. This raises two issues, how much he needs to play to get his WAR up to the 8.57 range and/or how much his save percentage might need to improve to do so. Let's consider those separately.
Rinne has faced an average of 24.35 shots at even strength, 4.32 shots on the PK and 0.67 shots with the Preds up a man per start in his career up to the current season. Based on his career save percentages in these spots (0.928/0.877/0.903) and the replacement group's (0.907/0.845/0.908) he has a WAR of 0.118 per start. To get to 8.57 for the season, he would have to start about 72 games a year! Keep in mind that this would be starting almost every game without seeing any dropoff in save percentage from his career average. Only Lundqvist has gotten close to that many starts and based on what Rinne has done the last three years I think we can all agree that this isn't realistic.
So, then, it would appear that he has to improve on his already high save percentage that most of us would guess is over expectation. How much improvement? Let's take his 64 starts last year as the jumping-off point. If he faces the same number and type of shots per start as he has in his career thus far that would be about 1,877 shots a season. A replacement-level goaltender would allow almost exactly 3 goals per start, or 192 goals for the season. At 5.52 goals per win, Rinne would need to concede about 47 fewer goals to be worth 8.57 wins above replacement. This translates to a save percentage of 0.923. Here is a table with all goaltenders with a career save percentage of 0.923 or above, minimum of 500 games played:
Just off the list is Dominik Hasek with a career save percentage of 0.922.
For his contract to be about about equal in value to other goaltenders making $4M a year or above, all Rinne has to do is play at the Hasek level for 65+ games a year for 7 years.
In this article, I will look at how his contract compares to those of other top goaltenders, at least those paid like one. The question at hand is how much he has to contribute for his $7M a year to be reasonable compared to other big-money goaltender deals. I am ignoring several key things like regression to the mean that might impact the overall value of goalies. In other words, I'm not looking at more general things like whether goaltenders as a whole are overpaid, or even if Rinne will be but rather what he has to do for us to say he's not overpaid relative to other top-dollar goaltenders.
Everywhere Is WAR
The nice thing about analyzing goalies is that we have a large number of discrete events and while there are teammate, opponent and rink/scorekeeper effects, the strength of a goaltender's performance pretty much boils down to how well they stopped the puck in different situations. Goaltender analysis is more similar to hitters in baseball than it is to skaters in hockey. The metric I'll use is WAR, Wins Above Replacement, which is very similar to the baseball stat of the same name. The idea is to look at how many goals the goalie in question gave up and compare that to what a typical replacement-level goalie (think free agent paid the minimum salary) would have allowed on the same number and type (ES, PK, PP) of shots. We can translate this number into wins to see how many wins each goaltender gave their team over what a replacement-level goalie would have.
I'm far from the first to use this method. As far as I understand it, GVT follows a similar approach for goalies. For a few other examples, Gabe Desjardins did something very similar two years ago over at Puck Prospectus and there was a fanpost on the subject by DoctorMyBrainHurts at Gabe's usual home, Arctic Ice Hockey. Philadelphia's goalie issues and the signing of Bryzgalov motivated some similar work by our friends Kent Wilson and Geoff Detweiler. With skaters it's rather more complicated, but for goalie analysis this approach is pretty clearly the way to go.
This is already one of the longest intros of all time so I won't go too far into detail about exactly how I calculated this. For replacement level, I took took the combined results of goalies that were not in the top 60 in games started for each season after the lockout. Another difference between my work and the others linked above is that I use 5.52 goals per win instead of the usual 6.0, which I feel is more accurate based on regressing league points on non-empty-net goal differential since the lockout. This warrants an article of its own, which I'll post later this week.
What does $4+ million buy these days?
Capgeek only goes back a couple years and nhlnumbers, which I used, only stretches back to 2007-2008. In those four seasons, we have a sample of 60 in which a goaltender had an annualized cap hit of $4M or greater. Here is a scatter plot showing the relationship between goaltender wins-above-replcement and the cap hit minus the minimum player salary. Something to note is that there isn't a very strong relationship between a goaltender's cap hit and how much value in wins he turned out to provide to his team. This is a sign that maybe high-price goaltenders as a group are overpaid, but I'll leave that for future work as it's outside the scope of this article.
The regression equation you see tells us what we should expect a goaltender to produce for a given cap hit over the minimum salary. The last two seasons the minimum has been half a million dollars. Going by that, here is what we should expect out of goaltenders in this range:
| Cap Hit ($M) | WAR |
| 4 | 3.42 |
| 4.5 | 4.28 |
| 5 | 5.14 |
| 5.5 | 6 |
| 6 | 6.86 |
| 6.5 | 7.71 |
| 7 | 8.57 |
So 4 million dollars buys you about three and a half wins.
How productive must Rinne be?
And finally we are ready to answer the question at hand. How well does Rinne need to play for his contract to compare well to other high-dollar goalie contracts? Looking at the last row of the table, we see that producing a WAR of about 8.57 a year is about right. Here are his last 3 seasons, which comprise 167 of his 168 career starts:
| Season | Starts | WAR |
| 2009 | 49 | 4.75 |
| 2010 | 54 | 3.76 |
| 2011 | 64 | 11.17 |
This averages out to a WAR of 6.56 per season, far below the expected 8.57. However, there might be two reasons to be optimistic. His number of starts per year has gone up each season and even on a per-start basis his WAR was substantially higher last year than the first two. While our gut instinct may chalk the latter up to random variance, the starts going up each year is obviously important since it's hard to provide value from the bench or IR. This raises two issues, how much he needs to play to get his WAR up to the 8.57 range and/or how much his save percentage might need to improve to do so. Let's consider those separately.
Rinne has faced an average of 24.35 shots at even strength, 4.32 shots on the PK and 0.67 shots with the Preds up a man per start in his career up to the current season. Based on his career save percentages in these spots (0.928/0.877/0.903) and the replacement group's (0.907/0.845/0.908) he has a WAR of 0.118 per start. To get to 8.57 for the season, he would have to start about 72 games a year! Keep in mind that this would be starting almost every game without seeing any dropoff in save percentage from his career average. Only Lundqvist has gotten close to that many starts and based on what Rinne has done the last three years I think we can all agree that this isn't realistic.
So, then, it would appear that he has to improve on his already high save percentage that most of us would guess is over expectation. How much improvement? Let's take his 64 starts last year as the jumping-off point. If he faces the same number and type of shots per start as he has in his career thus far that would be about 1,877 shots a season. A replacement-level goaltender would allow almost exactly 3 goals per start, or 192 goals for the season. At 5.52 goals per win, Rinne would need to concede about 47 fewer goals to be worth 8.57 wins above replacement. This translates to a save percentage of 0.923. Here is a table with all goaltenders with a career save percentage of 0.923 or above, minimum of 500 games played:
| Player | Starts | Career Save % |
Just off the list is Dominik Hasek with a career save percentage of 0.922.
For his contract to be about about equal in value to other goaltenders making $4M a year or above, all Rinne has to do is play at the Hasek level for 65+ games a year for 7 years.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
A Look at the Pekka Rinne Extension
This past Thursday, the Nashville Predators announced they had signed franchise goaltender Pekka Rinne to a 7-year, $49 million extension – the largest deal awarded in team history. After this season, Rinne’s average annual salary of $7 million will represent the highest cap hit for a goalie in the NHL, up from his $3.4 million number this season. On the surface, locking up a player that the franchise sees as “the best goaltender in the NHL” for the foreseeable future may seem wise, but there are a few underlying reasons that make this deal foolish for the Preds.
Let’s think about this again: 7 years, $49 million. For a team that is only spending $49,588,730 towards the cap this season and spent $50,903,696 last season, Rinne’s new $7 million cap figure would represent roughly 1/7 of Nashville’s entire budget. What is more, this doesn’t take into account the inevitable contract situations of both Shea Weber and Ryan Suter.
Weber, of course, was awarded a $7.5 million salary in arbitration this past summer and is entering his final season of restricted free agency. He will once again be arbitration-eligible and shouldn’t command a salary less than $7 million. Without signing him to a long-term deal making his cap hit more favorable, Nashville would likely be committing $14+ million to two players next season. Even if they choose to extend Weber long-term, I don’t see him taking much less than his current salary, further guaranteeing an emerging cap constraint.
Suter’s situation is equally sticky. He is set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, the clear prize of the defensive UFA class. Considering there hasn’t been a defenseman of Suter’s caliber on the open market in quite awhile, he could easily command a salary upwards of $6 million for multiple seasons. Once again, if the Predators plan to keep Suter they will have to back themselves into a corner salary-wise.
Even worse, all of this hasn’t taken into account Nashville’s dire need for forward depth. If the Predators continue their trend of spending ~$50M relative to the cap, any combination of Rinne-Weber/Suter will easily cost $12-14 million and approach $20 million should they decide to keep all three. Here’s where it gets dicey – the Predators are already on the hook for 11 contracts next season (including Rinne) for a total of $30,710,833. Should they keep one of Weber/Suter, they will be at roughly $36-38 million with 12 players signed. Should they keep them both, they will be approaching $43-45 million with 13 on the roster.
This is where the rubber meets the road. If they choose to spend to the upper limit, the Predators would have roughly $2.8 million per opening to fill out a 20-man roster. If that number seems high, it probably is. It’s very rare for teams to field only 20 players on an active roster for lack-of-depth reasons. No team will go through an entire season with the same 20 players intact, and for each additional skater they chose to ice the Predators would lose about $358,735 per available roster spot. Also, for every $1 million below $64.3 million ownership chooses to spend, that $2.8 million number would drop another $142,857. I’m skeptical that the Predators are ready to step into the arena with the NHL’s heavy spenders just yet, meaning they could easily be looking at $1.6 million (or less) per salary opening just to ice a 21-man roster.
Previewing next year’s offseason, Nashville currently has 8 players not named Shea Weber set to become restricted free agents at the end of this season – seven skaters (4 forwards, 3 defenseman) and G Anders Lindback. Their current salaries total $9,004,167 which wouldn’t take into account any potential raises each player would earn. It is very unlikely Nashville will find the cap space to even address their RFA needs, let alone address their weakness up front in the UFA market. For a team that claims to be solidifying its future, the idea begins to look counterintuitive.
What, then, is the answer to the equation if both Weber and Suter can't fit under Nashville's cap? The difference between Weber's upcoming RFA status and Suter's UFA status may be the deciding factor here. If another GM wants to shoot Nashville an offer sheet for Weber this offseason, they would stand to lose at least two first round draft picks because of the high salary Weber would command. As we saw this past summer, GMs are very reluctant to offer sheet high-priced RFAs for this exact reason, thus giving Weber more certainty to be back next year. Should the Predators find themselves out of contention by the trading deadline, shopping Ryan Suter could fetch a ton of offers for a playoff run because of his affordable $3.5 million cap hit. While a trade may be the best option moving forward, if Nashville is in the playoff picture it seems less likely any deal would happen. Should Suter decide to test the UFA waters come July, the Preds may lose out on receiving compensation for his departure. If it became clear that he wasn't going to re-sign, they could trade his negotiating rights before July 1 but any return would be less than what they could get at the deadline.
Regardless of what happens to both defenseman this summer, there is no way around the fact that having Weber and Suter on the ice is a heavy positive for the Predators. While Nashville ownership claims to be making every effort to re-sign them both, having the Rinne contract on the books will make it extremely difficult. At the end of the day, $7 million is an astronomical salary for a goaltender, especially for a team on an internal budget. Without taking nearly all of that salary and pouring it into better options up front, it may be awhile before we see Nashville capable of producing a positive shot differential per 60 minutes at even strength. In the end, it was GOB who said it best:
Next up will be JaredL delivering your statistics fix by taking taking a deeper look into the actual values of Rinne and other goaltenders to their teams.
Let’s think about this again: 7 years, $49 million. For a team that is only spending $49,588,730 towards the cap this season and spent $50,903,696 last season, Rinne’s new $7 million cap figure would represent roughly 1/7 of Nashville’s entire budget. What is more, this doesn’t take into account the inevitable contract situations of both Shea Weber and Ryan Suter.
Weber, of course, was awarded a $7.5 million salary in arbitration this past summer and is entering his final season of restricted free agency. He will once again be arbitration-eligible and shouldn’t command a salary less than $7 million. Without signing him to a long-term deal making his cap hit more favorable, Nashville would likely be committing $14+ million to two players next season. Even if they choose to extend Weber long-term, I don’t see him taking much less than his current salary, further guaranteeing an emerging cap constraint.
Suter’s situation is equally sticky. He is set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, the clear prize of the defensive UFA class. Considering there hasn’t been a defenseman of Suter’s caliber on the open market in quite awhile, he could easily command a salary upwards of $6 million for multiple seasons. Once again, if the Predators plan to keep Suter they will have to back themselves into a corner salary-wise.
Even worse, all of this hasn’t taken into account Nashville’s dire need for forward depth. If the Predators continue their trend of spending ~$50M relative to the cap, any combination of Rinne-Weber/Suter will easily cost $12-14 million and approach $20 million should they decide to keep all three. Here’s where it gets dicey – the Predators are already on the hook for 11 contracts next season (including Rinne) for a total of $30,710,833. Should they keep one of Weber/Suter, they will be at roughly $36-38 million with 12 players signed. Should they keep them both, they will be approaching $43-45 million with 13 on the roster.
This is where the rubber meets the road. If they choose to spend to the upper limit, the Predators would have roughly $2.8 million per opening to fill out a 20-man roster. If that number seems high, it probably is. It’s very rare for teams to field only 20 players on an active roster for lack-of-depth reasons. No team will go through an entire season with the same 20 players intact, and for each additional skater they chose to ice the Predators would lose about $358,735 per available roster spot. Also, for every $1 million below $64.3 million ownership chooses to spend, that $2.8 million number would drop another $142,857. I’m skeptical that the Predators are ready to step into the arena with the NHL’s heavy spenders just yet, meaning they could easily be looking at $1.6 million (or less) per salary opening just to ice a 21-man roster.
Previewing next year’s offseason, Nashville currently has 8 players not named Shea Weber set to become restricted free agents at the end of this season – seven skaters (4 forwards, 3 defenseman) and G Anders Lindback. Their current salaries total $9,004,167 which wouldn’t take into account any potential raises each player would earn. It is very unlikely Nashville will find the cap space to even address their RFA needs, let alone address their weakness up front in the UFA market. For a team that claims to be solidifying its future, the idea begins to look counterintuitive.
What, then, is the answer to the equation if both Weber and Suter can't fit under Nashville's cap? The difference between Weber's upcoming RFA status and Suter's UFA status may be the deciding factor here. If another GM wants to shoot Nashville an offer sheet for Weber this offseason, they would stand to lose at least two first round draft picks because of the high salary Weber would command. As we saw this past summer, GMs are very reluctant to offer sheet high-priced RFAs for this exact reason, thus giving Weber more certainty to be back next year. Should the Predators find themselves out of contention by the trading deadline, shopping Ryan Suter could fetch a ton of offers for a playoff run because of his affordable $3.5 million cap hit. While a trade may be the best option moving forward, if Nashville is in the playoff picture it seems less likely any deal would happen. Should Suter decide to test the UFA waters come July, the Preds may lose out on receiving compensation for his departure. If it became clear that he wasn't going to re-sign, they could trade his negotiating rights before July 1 but any return would be less than what they could get at the deadline.
Regardless of what happens to both defenseman this summer, there is no way around the fact that having Weber and Suter on the ice is a heavy positive for the Predators. While Nashville ownership claims to be making every effort to re-sign them both, having the Rinne contract on the books will make it extremely difficult. At the end of the day, $7 million is an astronomical salary for a goaltender, especially for a team on an internal budget. Without taking nearly all of that salary and pouring it into better options up front, it may be awhile before we see Nashville capable of producing a positive shot differential per 60 minutes at even strength. In the end, it was GOB who said it best:
Next up will be JaredL delivering your statistics fix by taking taking a deeper look into the actual values of Rinne and other goaltenders to their teams.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Driving Play Season Preview: 16-19, The Almost Average
And we keep rolling on. Here is my writeup for teams 20-22, with a description of the stats I'm using, here are Triumph's on teams 23-26 and 27-30.
#19: Carolina Hurricanes
Initial thought: Can the Canes draw their way into the playoffs?
Stats:
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 47.3%/48.8%
PDO: 1.005
PP%: 15.9% (24th)
PK%: 81.2% (20th)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 35.763 (21st)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -42.514 (19th)
2010-2011 Summary:
In a word: mediocre. Carolina was somewhere below average but not horrible in pretty much every category last year. They did get some decent play out of Cam Ward in goal, who had the 12th highest 5-on-5 save percentage among starters, according to BTN. As has been the case for the last several years, they drew a lot of penalties, so expect that to continue.
Offseason moves:
In what worked out like a trade, the Canes signed Tomáš Kaberle who was at Boston and then traded Joe Corvo to the Bruins for a 2012 fourth-round draft pick. Shutdownline covered this well here and here. I personally think Kaberle will be a bit more of an upgrade on the PP than Corey Sznajder suggests in those articles, mainly because he's put up slightly better numbers than Corvo with worse teammates. That said, I do agree that it's not likely to be a massive jump. Something to keep in mind is that because Carolina draws so many penalties, a small improvement there would lead to more goals than it would for other teams.
They will make the playoffs if...
Skinner is able to build on his rookie season. Here's shutdownline's projection for Skinner, which is quite detailed and covers his great rookie year very well. I'm inclined to agree that a drop in his raw scoring numbers should be expected since he shot lights out. To be honest this is more for down the road, but if Staal can keep producing in relatively tough minutes and Skinner can make the second line a big scoring threat then that will make the Canes a tough matchup.
Conclusion:
I don't like the Canes' chances of making the playoffs this year. Last year they finished just two points back from the Rangers, but all of us expect for New Jersey to be much improved this year. They definitely have a shot though, particularly if they improve on the power play and maintain their secondary scoring.
#18: Calgary Flames
Initial thought: How much weight can Iggy carry on his back year after year?
Stats:
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 52.4%/51.6%
PDO: 0.998
PP%: 19.5% (8th)
PK%: 81.2% (21st)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 48.551 (5th)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -49.905 (26th)
2010-2011 Summary:
Calgary were good in possession and on the power play. So how did they miss the playoffs? They were not very good defensively, whether 5-on-5 or on the penalty kill, and Kiprusoff was simply not good enough. He was 23rd at 5-on-5 save percentage among starting goalies and 26th best when his team was down a man, courtesy of BTN. Getting back to team 5-on-5 performance, the gap following each type of faceoff is remarkable. The Flames were devastating on faceoffs in their offensive zone but every bit that bad in their own zone.
Offseason moves:
In line with most teams, the Flames didn't do much in the offseason. Other than going after Brad Richards, which they were rumored to have done, I suppose they didn't have a lot of options. Even Florida thinks the Bouwmeester and Kiprusoff contracts are awful.
They will make the playoffs if...
Iginla can keep it up. Iggy provided the biggest assist by a Canadian since World War II and has put up very impressive numbers well into his thirties. At 34 we would expect a dropoff sometime soon. The Flames finished 3 points out of the playoffs a year ago and should be in the mix this year.
Conclusion:
Right now Capgeek tells me that the Flames have $3.6M in cap space. I think this will give us a preview of their long-term plans. They had been more than willing to shell out the cash, so we could definitely see a trade or two during the season to help them make the playoffs. On the flip side, there are rumors and suggestions that Calgary will soon be in rebuilding mode, in which case they will likely sit on it and maybe even be sellers at the deadline. I think a lot will rest on how they come out of the gate.
#17: St. Louis Blues
Initial thought: Feel free to make your own pun.
Stats:
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 52.4%/52.2%
PDO: 0.993
PP%: 18.6% (10th)
PK%: 81.7% (18th)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 41.963 (15th)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -36.241 (12th)
2010-2011 Summary:
St. Louis is one of these teams where the numbers just don't seem to add up. Their possession numbers were good, they were good on the power play and close to average on the penalty kill. They did have goaltending problems - Halak finished 22nd among starting goalies at 5-on-5 save percentage and 20th 4-on-5. What really killed them was the third lowest 5-on-5 shooting percentage in the league. I think we can expect that go to up this year. Another factor is faceoffs. The Blues were third worst in the league in faceoff win %. This lead to their merely decent faceoff-shift numbers; they were best in the league once a substitution had been made following both offensive-zone and defensive-zone faceoffs.
Offseason Moves:
There weren't a lot of interesting moves. Not a lot to say about the Blues signing vets Arnott and Langenbrunner to one-year deals. Next year things get far more interesting. St. Louis will have Chris Stewart, TJ Oshie, Barret Jackman and Carlo Colaiacovo all come up for resigning. The former two will be restricted free agents. Early last season they were able to extend Backes, we'll see if they can keep their core together since they have some decent young talent.
They will make the playoffs if...
they shoot better. Something close to league average gets them in.
Conclusion:
St. Louis is a really interesting team when you look at how they're perceived by different types of fans and analysts. They had the lion's share of possession but mediocre scoring results. According to TOI, at even strength they broke even scoring (167-167) but outshot their opponents by 161 shots (1989-1828). Looking at individuals with 40 or more games, they have 6 with a 5-on-5 Corsi rate higher than +10 (BTN) but David Backes was their only 30-goal scorer with 31. I think we'll see an improvement in their shooting numbers that will put them well into the mix for a playoff spot despite finishing 10 points back a year ago.
#16: Nashville Predators
Initial thought: Can't lose if you don't concede.
Stats:
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 48.1%/48.9%
PDO: 1.015
PP%: 15.2% (26th)
PK%: 84.9% (5th)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 33.555 (24th)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -44.536 (12th)
2010-2011 Summary:
It may surprise you to learn that Nashville had a better goal differential last year than Detroit - +25 to +20. They did it the old-school way with top quality defense and goaltending. Why that is considered old-school I have no idea since all the old games I've ever seen featured awful defending and worse goaltending. In any case, the Preds allowed the second fewest goals in the league, had dominant penalty killing and Rinne was the best goalie other than Tim Thomas. He was second among starters in save percentage both 5-on-5 and 4-on-5. Offensively, Nashville were far from spectacular.
Offseason Moves:
The biggest offseason thing was the Shea Weber arbitration deal. I don't think $7.5M was fair, but I don't think it'll make a big difference for this season. It is, however, a bad omen for the future. Unless Poile can get ownership to open the checkbook, it's going to be tough to keep this group together. Weber will come up as an RFA again next year, as will Kostitsyn, Wilson, Geoffrion and O'Reilly. Tootoo and Weber's defense partner Suter and, perhaps most importantly Rinne will become unrestricted free agents. It'll be interesting to see what happens with all those contracts and if Nashville is willing to spend close to the cap.
They will make the playoffs if...
they keep it up. I like Nashville for the playoffs. If Rinne pulls a Thomas in the postseason they could even make a deep run, but I think they'll need to improve offensively to be a real threat.
Conclusion:
Not a lot more to say about the Preds so I'll use this space to give a shoutout to ontheforecheck, one of my favorite blogs.
That's all I've got. Chase is up next with #7-15.
Our list so far:
30. Edmonton
29. Colorado
28. Dallas
27. NY Islanders
26. Minnesota
25. Ottawa
24. Toronto
23. Florida
22. Phoenix
21. Winnipeg
20. Anaheim
19. Carolina
18. Calgary
17. St. Louis
16. Nashville
#19: Carolina Hurricanes
Initial thought: Can the Canes draw their way into the playoffs?
Stats:
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 47.3%/48.8%
PDO: 1.005
PP%: 15.9% (24th)
PK%: 81.2% (20th)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 35.763 (21st)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -42.514 (19th)
2010-2011 Summary:
In a word: mediocre. Carolina was somewhere below average but not horrible in pretty much every category last year. They did get some decent play out of Cam Ward in goal, who had the 12th highest 5-on-5 save percentage among starters, according to BTN. As has been the case for the last several years, they drew a lot of penalties, so expect that to continue.
Offseason moves:
In what worked out like a trade, the Canes signed Tomáš Kaberle who was at Boston and then traded Joe Corvo to the Bruins for a 2012 fourth-round draft pick. Shutdownline covered this well here and here. I personally think Kaberle will be a bit more of an upgrade on the PP than Corey Sznajder suggests in those articles, mainly because he's put up slightly better numbers than Corvo with worse teammates. That said, I do agree that it's not likely to be a massive jump. Something to keep in mind is that because Carolina draws so many penalties, a small improvement there would lead to more goals than it would for other teams.
They will make the playoffs if...
Skinner is able to build on his rookie season. Here's shutdownline's projection for Skinner, which is quite detailed and covers his great rookie year very well. I'm inclined to agree that a drop in his raw scoring numbers should be expected since he shot lights out. To be honest this is more for down the road, but if Staal can keep producing in relatively tough minutes and Skinner can make the second line a big scoring threat then that will make the Canes a tough matchup.
Conclusion:
I don't like the Canes' chances of making the playoffs this year. Last year they finished just two points back from the Rangers, but all of us expect for New Jersey to be much improved this year. They definitely have a shot though, particularly if they improve on the power play and maintain their secondary scoring.
#18: Calgary Flames
Initial thought: How much weight can Iggy carry on his back year after year?
Stats:
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 52.4%/51.6%
PDO: 0.998
PP%: 19.5% (8th)
PK%: 81.2% (21st)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 48.551 (5th)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -49.905 (26th)
2010-2011 Summary:
Calgary were good in possession and on the power play. So how did they miss the playoffs? They were not very good defensively, whether 5-on-5 or on the penalty kill, and Kiprusoff was simply not good enough. He was 23rd at 5-on-5 save percentage among starting goalies and 26th best when his team was down a man, courtesy of BTN. Getting back to team 5-on-5 performance, the gap following each type of faceoff is remarkable. The Flames were devastating on faceoffs in their offensive zone but every bit that bad in their own zone.
Offseason moves:
In line with most teams, the Flames didn't do much in the offseason. Other than going after Brad Richards, which they were rumored to have done, I suppose they didn't have a lot of options. Even Florida thinks the Bouwmeester and Kiprusoff contracts are awful.
They will make the playoffs if...
Iginla can keep it up. Iggy provided the biggest assist by a Canadian since World War II and has put up very impressive numbers well into his thirties. At 34 we would expect a dropoff sometime soon. The Flames finished 3 points out of the playoffs a year ago and should be in the mix this year.
Conclusion:
Right now Capgeek tells me that the Flames have $3.6M in cap space. I think this will give us a preview of their long-term plans. They had been more than willing to shell out the cash, so we could definitely see a trade or two during the season to help them make the playoffs. On the flip side, there are rumors and suggestions that Calgary will soon be in rebuilding mode, in which case they will likely sit on it and maybe even be sellers at the deadline. I think a lot will rest on how they come out of the gate.
#17: St. Louis Blues
Initial thought: Feel free to make your own pun.
Stats:
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 52.4%/52.2%
PDO: 0.993
PP%: 18.6% (10th)
PK%: 81.7% (18th)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 41.963 (15th)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -36.241 (12th)
2010-2011 Summary:
St. Louis is one of these teams where the numbers just don't seem to add up. Their possession numbers were good, they were good on the power play and close to average on the penalty kill. They did have goaltending problems - Halak finished 22nd among starting goalies at 5-on-5 save percentage and 20th 4-on-5. What really killed them was the third lowest 5-on-5 shooting percentage in the league. I think we can expect that go to up this year. Another factor is faceoffs. The Blues were third worst in the league in faceoff win %. This lead to their merely decent faceoff-shift numbers; they were best in the league once a substitution had been made following both offensive-zone and defensive-zone faceoffs.
Offseason Moves:
There weren't a lot of interesting moves. Not a lot to say about the Blues signing vets Arnott and Langenbrunner to one-year deals. Next year things get far more interesting. St. Louis will have Chris Stewart, TJ Oshie, Barret Jackman and Carlo Colaiacovo all come up for resigning. The former two will be restricted free agents. Early last season they were able to extend Backes, we'll see if they can keep their core together since they have some decent young talent.
They will make the playoffs if...
they shoot better. Something close to league average gets them in.
Conclusion:
St. Louis is a really interesting team when you look at how they're perceived by different types of fans and analysts. They had the lion's share of possession but mediocre scoring results. According to TOI, at even strength they broke even scoring (167-167) but outshot their opponents by 161 shots (1989-1828). Looking at individuals with 40 or more games, they have 6 with a 5-on-5 Corsi rate higher than +10 (BTN) but David Backes was their only 30-goal scorer with 31. I think we'll see an improvement in their shooting numbers that will put them well into the mix for a playoff spot despite finishing 10 points back a year ago.
#16: Nashville Predators
Initial thought: Can't lose if you don't concede.
Stats:
5-on-5 Fen%/Corsi%: 48.1%/48.9%
PDO: 1.015
PP%: 15.2% (26th)
PK%: 84.9% (5th)
Ozone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: 33.555 (24th)
Dzone Faceoff Shift Corsi Rate: -44.536 (12th)
2010-2011 Summary:
It may surprise you to learn that Nashville had a better goal differential last year than Detroit - +25 to +20. They did it the old-school way with top quality defense and goaltending. Why that is considered old-school I have no idea since all the old games I've ever seen featured awful defending and worse goaltending. In any case, the Preds allowed the second fewest goals in the league, had dominant penalty killing and Rinne was the best goalie other than Tim Thomas. He was second among starters in save percentage both 5-on-5 and 4-on-5. Offensively, Nashville were far from spectacular.
Offseason Moves:
The biggest offseason thing was the Shea Weber arbitration deal. I don't think $7.5M was fair, but I don't think it'll make a big difference for this season. It is, however, a bad omen for the future. Unless Poile can get ownership to open the checkbook, it's going to be tough to keep this group together. Weber will come up as an RFA again next year, as will Kostitsyn, Wilson, Geoffrion and O'Reilly. Tootoo and Weber's defense partner Suter and, perhaps most importantly Rinne will become unrestricted free agents. It'll be interesting to see what happens with all those contracts and if Nashville is willing to spend close to the cap.
They will make the playoffs if...
they keep it up. I like Nashville for the playoffs. If Rinne pulls a Thomas in the postseason they could even make a deep run, but I think they'll need to improve offensively to be a real threat.
Conclusion:
Not a lot more to say about the Preds so I'll use this space to give a shoutout to ontheforecheck, one of my favorite blogs.
That's all I've got. Chase is up next with #7-15.
Our list so far:
30. Edmonton
29. Colorado
28. Dallas
27. NY Islanders
26. Minnesota
25. Ottawa
24. Toronto
23. Florida
22. Phoenix
21. Winnipeg
20. Anaheim
19. Carolina
18. Calgary
17. St. Louis
16. Nashville
Friday, August 5, 2011
A Look at the Shea Weber Arbitration Deal
We teamed up on this article. Chase wrote the first part and JaredL wrote the end, starting at "The Good News and Bad News for Nashville".
When Shea Weber was awarded a 1-year, $7.5 million contract in salary arbitration this past Wednesday, it left me wondering whether or not the Predators’ superstar defenseman was deserving of such a high salary. After all, $7.5 million ties him for the 7th highest cap hit in the league for 2011-2012 and is #1 amongst his fellow blueliners. What is it that Weber continually brings to the table for Nashville? Per nhl.com, let’s take a look at his ice time in all situations last year:
As we can see, Nashville relies heavily upon Weber in all situations. Ranking number one among defensemen teammates in total ice time per game, Weber allows coach Barry Trotz to lean on him no matter the pinch that the team may find themselves in.
In an attempt to bestow some context upon these minutes, I wandered over to Behind the Net and ran a query for the CorsiRelQoC score of all NHL defenseman with a minimum of 20 games played last season. The results are below:
Weber sits 23rd, perhaps unsurprisingly attached at the hip to his frequent defensive partner Ryan Suter. Browsing some of the names on this list, we can see that Weber is in elite league-wide company with the toughness of his minutes. Putting Weber’s score in a team context, here is the CorsiRelQoC of all Nashville skaters with the same games played requirement:
We see just how important Weber is to his team. He and Suter face competition in the conversation with the league’s elite, and Nashville would certainly struggle to replace his minutes if they were to lose his services. With tough-minutes eater Joel Ward leaving for Washington in the offseason, it will only make Weber all the more important to Nashville’s success in 2011-2012. Having noted the context of Weber’s minutes, just how well is he doing with his given role?
The table should be fairly self-explanatory: Weber is the best offensive producer amongst the defenseman on his team and ranks in the top-30 league-wide in every category. What is more, despite a 45% zone start and a hefty CorsiRelQoC number, the majority of the shots while he is on the ice are being directed at the opponent’s net. Weber is certainly handling his minutes in the manner of an elite NHL defenseman, and without him Nashville would be in a pinch for tough-minutes help in all situations and production from their back-end. On one hand, the numbers don’t indicate that he’s the best defenseman in the league, though he appears to be among them, so it seems the ruling overpays him. On the other it doesn’t seem like the contract will keep Nashville from signing anyone given their cap situation and the timing. Perhaps they are less likely to make a trade that takes on more salary for this season due to an internal cap. I would have to conclude that Shea Weber’s new 1-year contract is a win-win for all parties involved. What he signs next year will be more interesting.
The Good News and Bad News for Nashville
How important is Weber to the Predators? This question doesn't quite equate to value but is certainly a big part of how their fans and front office will view the extension. To speculate, it seems likely that Nashville GM David Poile chose arbitration because he thinks Shea Weber is very important to the Predators - he didn't want to risk losing him due to another team tabling an unmatchable offer sheet, despite compensation the Preds would get if that happened.
On that front, there is good news and potentially some bad news for Nashville. I'll start with the good news. Using play-by-play data from the last two seasons, WOWY stats indicate that the Predators were far better off with Weber on the ice in every situation. Let's break this down.
Here are the overall even-strength numbers with both goalies in net:
Weber is facing tough competition and Nashville does far better with him on; their Corsi rate goes up by 5.92 shots per 60 when he jumps onto the ice. Let's go ahead and break this down further. What about when facing tough or weak competition? To look at that, we've broken down the ice time into situations where the average Corsi of the opposing players, according to BTN, is positive and those where it is negative. Here is the breakdown:
Looking at the overall picture, Weber has had success despite having a really high qualcomp. While he is obviously doing well against the above-average players, to the tune of increasing his team's Corsi rate by 5.1 per 60, a much larger WOWY difference comes against weaker competition - his presence on the ice increased Nashville's Corsi against below average players by 9.2 per. Given his offensive skills, this is perhaps not too surprising.
Now let's move on to zone starts. Using faceoff information, we can look only at times where there was a faceoff in the offensive/defensive zone within the last minute. That should serve as a pretty good indicator of how good he is in each zone. We also include all situations where either the most recent faceoff was more than a minute before or was in the neutral zone.
Again, we see the same pattern with Nashville having much more success with Weber on the ice in all three zones. Somewhat surprisingly, the biggest difference is in the defensive zone.
Now let's look at special teams. Here are the PP numbers, first Corsi then goals, with shorthanded goals conceded subtracted:
Here are the penalty-kill numbers:
There are a couple things worth noting here. A guy has to rest sometime, but these numbers indicate that Weber is an above-average penalty killer for the Preds and should probably get more time. The previous set of charts indicating that he was good in the defensive end is further evidence. On that note, it's interesting that there was a larger difference in his defensive-zone WOWY than for the offensive zone, but that was flipped for special teams. This is pretty likely just due to random variance. You shouldn't put too much stock into the exact numbers, but note the very strong pattern that has emerged. In every situation, Nashville was better with Weber on the ice than off it, in most cases substantially. This despite him facing tougher competition than the average Predator in all 5-on-5 scenarios and most likely on the power play.
Potential "Bad" News: Is Suter Actually Driving Play?
I put bad in quotation marks because it's not really bad news for Nashville, except that it would indicate seriously overpaying for Weber no matter how you look at it. I say potential because evidence is scarce. The reason for this is that Shea Weber and Ryan Suter have spent almost all of their ice time together over the last three years. That makes it very difficult to separate. Going back four seasons, Suter had better numbers but he also had a much better partner. Weber spent most of his time alongside Greg Zanon while Suter was paired with Marek Zidlicky.
While the sample sizes reduce this from a blow-your-mind revelation to an anecdote worth considering, you may be surprised to learn that when they've been apart Suter has had more success, or perhaps less failure would be a better way to put it. He's also faced tougher competition. Here's a chart going over their time together and apart in the last two years.
Overall it is certain that at the very least the Weber-Suter pairing is very important to the Predators' success. In every situation, Weber's presence on the ice improved his team's numbers. This is muddied by Suter's stats looking very similar, for obvious reasons, and actually being better against tougher competition in the rare cases when they were apart. Given that they are both free agents next summer, it's going to be very important to figure out if they are both carrying the water or if only one is.
We'd love to hear from Nashville fans. Which of the two do you think is Driving Play? What do you think Weber should get if he re-signs long term?
When Shea Weber was awarded a 1-year, $7.5 million contract in salary arbitration this past Wednesday, it left me wondering whether or not the Predators’ superstar defenseman was deserving of such a high salary. After all, $7.5 million ties him for the 7th highest cap hit in the league for 2011-2012 and is #1 amongst his fellow blueliners. What is it that Weber continually brings to the table for Nashville? Per nhl.com, let’s take a look at his ice time in all situations last year:
| Player | Games Played | ES TOI/Game | Team Rank | PP TOI/Game | Team Rank | SH TOI/Game | Team Rank | Total TOI/Game | Team Rank |
| Weber | 82 | 19:33 | 2 | 3:38 | 1 | 2:06 | 3 | 25:19 | 1 |
As we can see, Nashville relies heavily upon Weber in all situations. Ranking number one among defensemen teammates in total ice time per game, Weber allows coach Barry Trotz to lean on him no matter the pinch that the team may find themselves in.
In an attempt to bestow some context upon these minutes, I wandered over to Behind the Net and ran a query for the CorsiRelQoC score of all NHL defenseman with a minimum of 20 games played last season. The results are below:
| RK | NAME | TEAM | Corsi Rel QoC |
| 1 | NICKLASLIDSTROM | DET | 1.807 |
| 2 | MARCSTAAL | NYR | 1.602 |
| 3 | DANGIRARDI | NYR | 1.583 |
| 4 | BRADSTUART | DET | 1.501 |
| 5 | NICKLASGROSSMAN | DAL | 1.468 |
| 6 | ROBYNREGEHR | CGY | 1.452 |
| 7 | STEPHANEROBIDAS | DAL | 1.422 |
| 8 | JASONGARRISON | FLA | 1.412 |
| 9 | MIKEWEAVER | FLA | 1.381 |
| 10 | JAYBOUWMEESTER | CGY | 1.307 |
| 11 | WILLIEMITCHELL | L.A | 1.3 |
| 12 | MATTIASOHLUND | T.B | 1.275 |
| 13 | TONILYDMAN | ANA | 1.239 |
| 14 | BARRETJACKMAN | STL | 1.12 |
| 15 | KEITHAULIE | TOR | 1.119 |
| 16 | KARLALZNER | WSH | 1.106 |
| 17 | JOHNCARLSON | WSH | 1.088 |
| 18 | SAMISALO | VAN | 1.071 |
| 19 | ZDENOCHARA | BOS | 1.047 |
| 20 | KIMMOTIMONEN | PHI | 1.024 |
| 21 | BROOKSORPIK | PIT | 0.996 |
| 22 | RYANSUTER | NSH | 0.971 |
| 23 | SHEAWEBER | NSH | 0.942 |
| 24 | BRENTSEABROOK | CHI | 0.928 |
| 25 | JOHNNYBOYCHUK | BOS | 0.927 |
| 26 | LUBOMIRVISNOVSKY | ANA | 0.907 |
| 27 | RYANO'BYRNE | COL | 0.888 |
| 28 | DEREKMORRIS | PHX | 0.883 |
| 29 | BRAYDONCOBURN | PHI | 0.88 |
| 30 | CHRISPHILLIPS | OTT | 0.847 |
Weber sits 23rd, perhaps unsurprisingly attached at the hip to his frequent defensive partner Ryan Suter. Browsing some of the names on this list, we can see that Weber is in elite league-wide company with the toughness of his minutes. Putting Weber’s score in a team context, here is the CorsiRelQoC of all Nashville skaters with the same games played requirement:
| RK | NAME | TEAM | Corsi Rel QoC |
| 1 | JOELWARD | NSH | 1.126 |
| 2 | RYANSUTER | NSH | 0.971 |
| 3 | MARTINERAT | NSH | 0.961 |
| 4 | SHEAWEBER | NSH | 0.942 |
| 5 | JERREDSMITHSON | NSH | 0.83 |
| 6 | DAVIDLEGWAND | NSH | 0.805 |
| 7 | NICKSPALING | NSH | 0.633 |
| 8 | KEVINKLEIN | NSH | 0.621 |
| 9 | MIKEFISHER | NSH | 0.564 |
| 10 | JONATHONBLUM | NSH | 0.522 |
| 11 | MATTHALISCHUK | NSH | 0.51 |
| 12 | SERGEIKOSTITSYN | NSH | 0.436 |
| 13 | JORDINTOOTOO | NSH | 0.306 |
| 14 | FRANCISBOUILLON | NSH | 0.177 |
| 15 | STEVESULLIVAN | NSH | 0.055 |
| 16 | MARCELGOC | NSH | 0.01 |
| 17 | CALO'REILLY | NSH | -0.02 |
| 18 | PATRICHORNQVIST | NSH | -0.02 |
| 19 | COLINWILSON | NSH | -0.035 |
| 20 | SHANEO'BRIEN | NSH | -0.247 |
| 21 | JPDUMONT | NSH | -0.487 |
| 22 | CODYFRANSON | NSH | -0.673 |
| 23 | BLAKEGEOFFRION | NSH | -1.217 |
We see just how important Weber is to his team. He and Suter face competition in the conversation with the league’s elite, and Nashville would certainly struggle to replace his minutes if they were to lose his services. With tough-minutes eater Joel Ward leaving for Washington in the offseason, it will only make Weber all the more important to Nashville’s success in 2011-2012. Having noted the context of Weber’s minutes, just how well is he doing with his given role?
| ES Goals | ES Assists | ES Points | PP Goals | PP Assists | PP Points | |
| Stat | 9 | 21 | 30 | 6 | 11 | 17 |
| Team Rank | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | T-1 |
| NHL Rank | T-3 | T-11 | 7 | T-9 | T-29 | T-23 |
| Corsi ON | CorsiRel | Fenwick % | CorsiRelQoC | Zone Start % | Zone Finish % |
| 2.69 | 7.2 | 53.4 | 0.942 | 45.3 | 48.4 |
The table should be fairly self-explanatory: Weber is the best offensive producer amongst the defenseman on his team and ranks in the top-30 league-wide in every category. What is more, despite a 45% zone start and a hefty CorsiRelQoC number, the majority of the shots while he is on the ice are being directed at the opponent’s net. Weber is certainly handling his minutes in the manner of an elite NHL defenseman, and without him Nashville would be in a pinch for tough-minutes help in all situations and production from their back-end. On one hand, the numbers don’t indicate that he’s the best defenseman in the league, though he appears to be among them, so it seems the ruling overpays him. On the other it doesn’t seem like the contract will keep Nashville from signing anyone given their cap situation and the timing. Perhaps they are less likely to make a trade that takes on more salary for this season due to an internal cap. I would have to conclude that Shea Weber’s new 1-year contract is a win-win for all parties involved. What he signs next year will be more interesting.
The Good News and Bad News for Nashville
How important is Weber to the Predators? This question doesn't quite equate to value but is certainly a big part of how their fans and front office will view the extension. To speculate, it seems likely that Nashville GM David Poile chose arbitration because he thinks Shea Weber is very important to the Predators - he didn't want to risk losing him due to another team tabling an unmatchable offer sheet, despite compensation the Preds would get if that happened.
On that front, there is good news and potentially some bad news for Nashville. I'll start with the good news. Using play-by-play data from the last two seasons, WOWY stats indicate that the Predators were far better off with Weber on the ice in every situation. Let's break this down.
Here are the overall even-strength numbers with both goalies in net:
| ES | Corsi | Minutes | Corsi/60 | Corsi QoC |
| Weber On | +204 | 2,965.4 | 4.128 | 1.155 |
| Weber Off | -153 | 5,112.7 | -1.796 | 0.425 |
Weber is facing tough competition and Nashville does far better with him on; their Corsi rate goes up by 5.92 shots per 60 when he jumps onto the ice. Let's go ahead and break this down further. What about when facing tough or weak competition? To look at that, we've broken down the ice time into situations where the average Corsi of the opposing players, according to BTN, is positive and those where it is negative. Here is the breakdown:
| ES | Corsi | Minutes | Corsi/60 | Corsi QoC |
| Tough, Weber On | -136 | 1,714.2 | -4.760 | 6.037 |
| Tough, Weber Off | -440 | 2,689.4 | -9.816 | 5.794 |
| Easy, Weber On | +340 | 1,251.2 | 16.304 | -5.533 |
| Easy, Weber Off | +287 | 2,423.3 | 7.106 | -5.533 |
Looking at the overall picture, Weber has had success despite having a really high qualcomp. While he is obviously doing well against the above-average players, to the tune of increasing his team's Corsi rate by 5.1 per 60, a much larger WOWY difference comes against weaker competition - his presence on the ice increased Nashville's Corsi against below average players by 9.2 per. Given his offensive skills, this is perhaps not too surprising.
Now let's move on to zone starts. Using faceoff information, we can look only at times where there was a faceoff in the offensive/defensive zone within the last minute. That should serve as a pretty good indicator of how good he is in each zone. We also include all situations where either the most recent faceoff was more than a minute before or was in the neutral zone.
| Off Zone | Corsi | Minutes | Corsi/60 | Corsi QoC |
| Weber On | +295 | 539.9 | 32.782 | 1.283 |
| Weber Off | +406 | 945.5 | 25.765 | 0.357 |
| Def Zone | Corsi | Minutes | Corsi/60 | Corsi QoC |
| Weber On | -219 | 665.6 | -19.741 | 1.574 |
| Weber Off | -494 | 1,014.0 | -29.230 | 0.782 |
| Neutral | Corsi | Minutes | Corsi/60 | Corsi QoC |
| Weber On | +62 | 922.7 | 4.032 | 1.283 |
| Weber Off | -84 | 1,513.6 | -3.330 | 0.429 |
Again, we see the same pattern with Nashville having much more success with Weber on the ice in all three zones. Somewhat surprisingly, the biggest difference is in the defensive zone.
Now let's look at special teams. Here are the PP numbers, first Corsi then goals, with shorthanded goals conceded subtracted:
| Power Play | Corsi | Minutes | Corsi/60 |
| Weber On | +823 | 567.1 | 87.082 |
| Weber Off | +439 | 341.8 | 77.074 |
| Power Play | Goals | Minutes | Goals/60 |
| Weber On | 63 | 567.1 | 6.666 |
| Weber Off | 19 | 341.8 | 3.336 |
Here are the penalty-kill numbers:
| Penalty Kill | Corsi | Minutes | Corsi/60 |
| Weber On | -333 | 267.2 | -74.785 |
| Weber Off | -794 | 581.3 | -81.957 |
| Penalty Kill | Goals | Minutes | Goals/60 |
| Weber On | -28 | 267.2 | -6.288 |
| Weber Off | -64 | 581.3 | -6.606 |
There are a couple things worth noting here. A guy has to rest sometime, but these numbers indicate that Weber is an above-average penalty killer for the Preds and should probably get more time. The previous set of charts indicating that he was good in the defensive end is further evidence. On that note, it's interesting that there was a larger difference in his defensive-zone WOWY than for the offensive zone, but that was flipped for special teams. This is pretty likely just due to random variance. You shouldn't put too much stock into the exact numbers, but note the very strong pattern that has emerged. In every situation, Nashville was better with Weber on the ice than off it, in most cases substantially. This despite him facing tougher competition than the average Predator in all 5-on-5 scenarios and most likely on the power play.
I put bad in quotation marks because it's not really bad news for Nashville, except that it would indicate seriously overpaying for Weber no matter how you look at it. I say potential because evidence is scarce. The reason for this is that Shea Weber and Ryan Suter have spent almost all of their ice time together over the last three years. That makes it very difficult to separate. Going back four seasons, Suter had better numbers but he also had a much better partner. Weber spent most of his time alongside Greg Zanon while Suter was paired with Marek Zidlicky.
While the sample sizes reduce this from a blow-your-mind revelation to an anecdote worth considering, you may be surprised to learn that when they've been apart Suter has had more success, or perhaps less failure would be a better way to put it. He's also faced tougher competition. Here's a chart going over their time together and apart in the last two years.
| Even Strength | Corsi | Minutes | Corsi/60 | Corsi QoC |
| Both On | +228 | 2,487.7 | 5.499 | 1.068 |
| Weber Only | -24 | 477.7 | -3.015 | 1.605 |
| Suter Only | -1 | 368.5 | -0.163 | 2.110 |
| Neither | -152 | 4,744.2 | -1.922 | 0.295 |
Overall it is certain that at the very least the Weber-Suter pairing is very important to the Predators' success. In every situation, Weber's presence on the ice improved his team's numbers. This is muddied by Suter's stats looking very similar, for obvious reasons, and actually being better against tougher competition in the rare cases when they were apart. Given that they are both free agents next summer, it's going to be very important to figure out if they are both carrying the water or if only one is.
We'd love to hear from Nashville fans. Which of the two do you think is Driving Play? What do you think Weber should get if he re-signs long term?
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